"Should You Back the Melbourne Cup Favourite?"

Recorded November 2025 for Kingsley Bartholomew's Melbourne Cup 2025 Best Bets & Tips. Any figures mentioned are from that time.

The favourite has drawn perfectly in eight and we all saw how good he was in the Caulfield Cup. He still doesn't make my list. That's not a knock on the horse. It's about whether the run in front of him is the run he was set for, and whether he has done what the race asks of him. On both counts I have doubts, and the same reasoning knocks out two other well-known runners.

Why the favourite misses my list

He had the perfect run in the Caulfield Cup. Everything went his way. He scores seven out of ten for me, so he isn't far off. The first problem is the trip. He has never been past 2,400 metres. That is a real question mark in a race like this and nobody can answer it until the day.

The second problem is the plan. To me this looks like a bit of an afterthought. He was set more for the Caulfield Cup than for this, and I think he has raced every month since March. He gets a tick for lead-up races, and he does love the wet. If it absolutely pours, he will grow another leg. I'm not saying he can't win. I'm saying I don't want to be on a horse that wasn't set for this cup and hasn't proven he gets the distance.

When the whole profile is against them

The next one has the task against it. He lacks a bit of class for this grade, the lead-up races aren't great, and I'm not sure about him on a wet track either. There is no part of the profile I can lean on. That's a definite pass. You don't need a long argument for those ones. When class, lead-up form and track conditions all sit in the doubtful column, leave it alone and move on.

Not falling into the same horse twice

The Moonee Valley Gold Cup winner is one I was on last year. I fell into him then. I'm not falling into him again. He went overseas after the 2024 cup, where he failed. Over there he raced 11 times and placed three times. For a horse coming back for this, I just don't think that's good enough.

The Gold Cup win looks better than it was. I don't think that field was strong. He should improve off that run, but here is the part that sticks with me. When he came over last year and won the Geelong Cup, he didn't improve after that. So I'm not going to assume he improves this time either. Five out of ten on my score, and the breeding isn't for me this year.

The common thread is simple. A good recent win is not enough on its own. I want to know the horse was set for this race, that it has been past the trip or has the profile to get there, and that its best form was against something. If the answer is no, it doesn't matter how short it is. Work through your own list the same way and be comfortable letting good horses go.

Every race on the card, rated, with Kingsley's selections and the speed maps behind them. Your first day is free, no card needed.

More from Kingsley

• How Far Back Should You Go When Rating a Horse?
• How to Check If an Overseas Horse Can Handle a Fast Pace
• Why Long Shots Can Show a Better Return With Fewer Winners

From the full video: Kingsley Bartholomew's Melbourne Cup 2025 Best Bets & Tips | Betting to win $1,000,000

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