How Much Improvement Is Left in a Lead Up Run?

Recorded October 2025 for My $1,000,000 Melbourne Cup Bet. Any figures mentioned are from that time.

When a whole field has come through the same lead up race, the form lines all look similar. That is the problem. You can sit there and tick off good run after good run and get no closer to an answer. The way I get past it is to stop asking who ran best and start asking a different question. How much improvement does each horse still have in it off that run. That is the question that actually separates them.

A lead up race full of merit runs

I have never seen so many good runs out of a Caulfield Cup from a Melbourne Cup point of view. There were plenty of horses with real merit to their race. One of them ran seventh and got blocked a little bit. I liked that run. But I preferred others in the same race. That is the point. Liking a run is not enough when ten horses behind you also ran well.

So the Caulfield Cup comes down to improvement. Who gets better for it and by how much. A horse that was fit and ready and still only ran a certain way might be close to the top of its range. A horse that was clearly in need of the run has somewhere to go. Same race, same finishing order, two very different stories for the next start.

Working out what is left

With the eight year old I mentioned, the improvement is there. He has the run under his belt now. He has been trained a different way this preparation. His trainer has set him for one race, and a horse set that way can peak on the day. He is only carrying fifty three and a half, so the weight is a tick. The lead up run was a tick as well. And we know he stays, because he was still trying to charge through the pack at the end of it.

Then you put the negative against all that. He is eight. That is a negative, of course it is. His overseas ratings going into the race a couple of years back were very good, and they are not the same now. So you are weighing a genuine improvement case against a horse who is past his best years.

How I land on a horse like that

He would have to improve about three lengths. I think he could improve three lengths, for the reasons above. But I cannot see him winning. The ability is there, the staying is there, the weight helps. The age pulls the other way hard enough that I am not putting him up as my top pick.

That does not mean he gets thrown out. He is in the mix. He is in my first four. I might save on him before the barriers drop. I am not discarding him completely, because he ran well two years ago and ran very well last time, and this preparation gives him a reason to be better again. I just do not know whether he can win. I think he will be thereabouts.

So when the whole field has come out of the one race, do not rank the runs. Rank the room each horse has left. Some of them have none and some of them have three lengths, and that is usually where the value sits.

Every race on the card, rated, with Kingsley's selections and the speed maps behind them. Your first day is free, no card needed.

More from Kingsley

• How Laying Your Own Selections Proves You Have an Edge
• How to Tell If Your Form Has a Real Edge
• What a Cruising Rank of One Tells You About a Horse

From the full video: My $1,000,000 Melbourne Cup Bet

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