Why Peak Ratings Tell You More Than Consistent Form

Recorded October 2025 for I think the market got this one wrong.... Any figures mentioned are from that time.

When I go through a field, I am not only looking at who has been running well. I am looking at how high each horse has ever rated. A beaten run does not wipe out a peak figure, and a long line of similar figures does not create one. The horse that has already touched a number nobody else in the race has touched is the horse with somewhere to go. Modella in race two on Saturday is a good example of how that works in practice.

A beaten run out of its depth is not a form reversal

Modella was first up over 1,200, which was probably a bit short for it. It drew wide, got wide off a very slow tempo, got back and came home. That was a big run first up. Next start it drew wide again and went back, but this time it was a group two. The race ratings tell the story. The track rated 92 down to 85, and 103 down to 97. Modella was out of its depth. It ran seventh, beaten 3.4 lengths. Now it is third up, fitter, and goes to 1,400.

The thing I keep coming back to are the two peak ratings sitting in that form. The 88s and 89s. No other horse in the field has recorded ratings like that. The last run looks ordinary on paper, but the ceiling is still there.

The exposed horse has already shown you its ceiling

The topweight, Alabama State, has very consistent ratings. The peak is 85 over 1,200. Over 1,400 at Rosehill, in the same scenario and the same race strength, it only rated 82. There is an 85 in there as well, but that came at 60 to one when it ran eighth. So the figure is there, but the horse has not pushed past it.

That is the difference. Modella has the higher peak ratings and, to my mind, more upside than the rest of the field. V12 is in the market too, and its peak rating sits around 82. The question I ask of those horses is whether they can go to the next level. Nothing in their form says they have.

Weight and number of starts shift the balance

Modella has only had seven starts. Alabama State has had twelve, thirteen, maybe fourteen. A horse with that many runs has usually shown you what it is. A horse with seven has not.

Then there is the weight. Alabama State is carrying 60 kilos. V12 is up in the weights as well. Modella is on about 57. So the horse with the highest peak figures is also the one getting weight from the exposed runners.

The other one I looked at was Strawberry Impact, who I thought was the danger. It was a bit unlucky last start at Hawkesbury and should have nearly won that race, and it goes from 15 back to 14. But its peak ratings are 84 and 85, so it is still off where Modella is rated. That is why Modella ticks so many boxes.

When you are going through a field, look past the last-start result and find the highest number each horse has ever run to. Then ask which of them can still improve on it.

Every race on the card, rated, with Kingsley's selections and the speed maps behind them. Your first day is free, no card needed.

More from Kingsley

• What I Look For in a Stayer When the Tempo Will Be Strong
• Why Race Strength Matters More Than a Horse's Win Record
• "Can A Sprinter Handle The Step Up In Distance?"

From the full video: I think the market got this one wrong...

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