How to Tell If Your Form Has a Real Edge

Recorded July 2025 for The Grind Ep 1: My Worst Month in Years. Any figures mentioned are from that time.

Most people only measure the horses they like. That tells you half the story. I measure my form both ways. I look at what my top selection returns, and I look at what the horses I want nothing to do with return. If the form is doing real work, those two numbers should sit a long way apart. The gap between them is the test, and it holds up even when results are going badly.

Measure the horses you do not like

Over the period I looked at, there were 1,369 lays. These are the horses I don't like. Of those, 173 won, so about 12 per cent of them got there. If you had backed every one of them, at the same metric as the top selection and the official tips, you would have lost 14 per cent. We are not backing them, obviously. But the number matters, because it shows the form is pushing the right horses out as well as pulling the right horses in.

On the other side, the number one selection returned a profit of 7 per cent. The official tips were at plus 1 per cent, and I expect that to go back up. So the horses the form dislikes are minus 14 and the horses it likes are plus 7. That is a swing of 20 to 21 per cent against the market. That is the bit I care about.

Why the swing matters more than the profit

If you had simply backed every horse over the same period on the same staking plan, you would have lost about 5 per cent. The overall market percentage was around 105. That is the baseline. Anything you do has to beat that baseline, and both ends of my form are a fair way from it in opposite directions.

A profit figure on its own can move around a lot. A short run of results can flatter it or flatten it. The gap between the likes and the dislikes is harder to fake. If the form had no edge, both sides would drift back toward the same number and sit near the market. They don't. That separation is what tells me the process is sorting horses properly, not just getting lucky with a few.

It still holds in a bad patch

The form has not been as solid as I would have liked. July was ordinary, and the last couple of weeks have been diabolical. That is the honest position. But when I go back and look at the full period, the edge is still sitting there. Lays at minus 14, top selection at plus 7.

That is why this measurement is useful during a losing run. When you are in the middle of a bad stretch, the easy reaction is to assume everything is broken and start changing things for the sake of it. Checking both ends of the form tells you whether the method is still separating horses or whether it has genuinely stopped working. In this case it is still separating them. We are on the right track.

None of that means I am happy with where it sits. We need to get better. We need to get better when we are winning and we need to get better when we are losing. So take your own form and run the same check. Work out what your selections return, then work out what the horses you rejected return. If those two numbers are close together, the form is not doing much. If they are a long way apart, you have something to build on.

Every race on the card, rated, with Kingsley's selections and the speed maps behind them. Your first day is free, no card needed.

More from Kingsley

• What a Cruising Rank of One Tells You About a Horse
• How to Build a Lay System From Pace and Early Speed
• How a Professional Punter Rebuilds a Model That Has Stopped Working

From the full video: The Grind Ep 1: My Worst Month in Years

Gamble responsibly. 18+. If gambling is a problem for you, call Gambling Help on 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au