How to Build a Lay System From Pace and Early Speed

Recorded August 2025 for The Grind Ep3: Mastering Betfair SP, Lays & Market Angles – A Professional Approach. Any figures mentioned are from that time.

Most people build a query the wrong way. They pick one factor, run it, and expect an answer. That is like taking the ball up one off the ruck every time. You get nowhere. A query needs logic spread through it, with each layer doing a job. Here is how I put a lay filter together using early speed, distance and predicted tempo, and then tidied it up with a price filter.

Start with early speed, not a speed map

Cruising rank is not a speed map, but it gives you an indication of where a horse is going to be in the run. It is about how much early speed the horse has, and about what sort of races it has come out of, whether they were high speed or low speed races. I think it matters most in short races. Sprints. So I took cruising ranks four to twenty four over 800 to 1200 metres. These are horses without much early speed in races where that should hurt.

I expected that to be poor. It is not something I would back. But I was wrong. There were 5,834 of them and it showed a small actual profit of point seven. So on its own, the factor did nothing for me either way. That is the point about one-out queries. A single idea rarely stands up.

Add the tempo the race is likely to run at

So I dug deeper. I added race pressure, looking for a very slow tempo early. Not the actual tempo of the race, the predicted tempo. On the King Zone site you will find that under race analysis, along with the horses predicted to be on pace in each race.

Now think about what the filter is describing. Slow early horses, in sprint races, in races predicted to be run at a slow tempo. They are very likely to get back in the field with no speed on in front of them. That run gave 647 bets, and backing them lost 18.7 per cent. Lay them and you are on the other side of that, less your commission, whatever it may be, three, four, five per cent.

Use the price to take the overlays out

From there I looked at probability difference, because I wanted to know whether I was laying horses my own ratings said were too good a price. I checked the ones I had as overs. There were only 81 of them and they won, at 5.6. I do not find many of them, because everything else in the filter is a negative, but they were sitting inside that minus 18 sample and dragging it around.

The small overlays still lost about 20 per cent. So I took the whole lot that I did not have as an overlay, the unders, and left the greens out. That came back at minus 35 per cent. Same horses, same tempo logic, just with the ones I rated as value removed.

If you want to use this, build the same way. One factor, then a second that explains why the first should matter, then a price check so you are not opposing horses you actually rate. Treat the sample sizes with respect and allow for commission before you call anything an edge.

Every race on the card, rated, with Kingsley's selections and the speed maps behind them. Your first day is free, no card needed.

More from Kingsley

• How a Professional Punter Rebuilds a Model That Has Stopped Working
• "Why Is It So Hard to Price a Race From Ratings Alone?"
• What a Time Rating Is and How Class, Speed and Weight Go Into One Number

From the full video: The Grind Ep3: Mastering Betfair SP, Lays & Market Angles – A Professional Approach

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