How Much Does Weight Really Matter in a Melbourne Cup?

Recorded September 2025 for Who Will Win the 2025 Melbourne Cup?. Any figures mentioned are from that time.

Weight is one of the first things I look at in a Melbourne Cup, and it is one of the things that gets me the most backlash in the comments. The argument against me is that good horses carry weight. The argument for me is simple. The further a race is, the more the weight comes into it. Over a thousand or 1,200 metres it might not matter much. Over a mile and a half or two miles, it really kicks in. The Cup is two miles, so it kicks in as hard as it ever does.

The spread tells you something before the race does

Last year the top weight was Vauban on fifty five and a half, and the limit weight was fifty. That is only five and a half kilos between the best treated horse and the worst treated horse in the race. This year Al Riffa is on fifty nine and the bottom weight is fifty one. That is eight kilos. The handicapper has stretched the race out. When that happens, the horses at the top have a much bigger job than the top weights had the year before, and the ones at the bottom are getting a bigger leg up than they used to.

What a winning weight actually looks like

I went through the average winning weight in the first episode last year and it came out around fifty one point seven kilos. This year I would expect it to be a couple of kilos higher than that, maybe around fifty three and a half, because of the way the weights have been framed. So that is the zone I am working in. Fifty five and a half is still a winning weight. Plenty of horses have carried that. Protectionist carried fifty six and a half. Sir Delius gets in at fifty five and a half and is pretty well weighted on that basis. Fifty nine is a different conversation. Kingston Town carried fifty nine and got beaten a head, and you could argue he should have won. Makybe Diva carried fifty eight to win her third, and she was probably well weighted that day given she had won the two previous, and she only had fifty eight because she was a mare. Fifty nine kilos is a very hard thing to do.

Do I pen a horse on weight alone

Not completely. I mark them down. That is the honest answer. Al Riffa on fifty nine, I could not back it, and that is weight doing the work. Buckaroo goes up two and a half kilos from last year to fifty seven. I could not have him last year, so I certainly cannot have him at fifty seven. Knight's Choice goes from fifty one and a half up to fifty five. He had the most beautiful run last year, ridden to perfection, and the race fell into place for him. He also had a winning weight. If he can do it again off fifty five I will be very surprised. Vauban only goes up one, which is not too bad, and with Gai Waterhouse training him now I would expect a bit more speed in his legs.

Use weight as a filter, not a verdict. Work out roughly where the winning weight sits in the race in front of you, then look hardest at the horses sitting at or below it.

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From the full video: Who Will Win the 2025 Melbourne Cup?

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