"Did You Let Emotion Take Over in the Melbourne Cup?"

Recorded November 2025 for My Cup Week Reality.... Any figures mentioned are from that time.

I had a big crack in the Cup and did my ass. That bet was not a reflection of how I stake day to day, and I want to explain why I still don't regret it. Cup day itself came out at 15% profit across 56 bets, 16 winners, a 28% strike rate. I still lost money on the day because I overstaked the Melbourne Cup. That was a decision I made months out, and I was prepared to wear it.

The annual bet sits outside the normal plan

Every year I do the same two things. I bet up on the NRL grand final, and I bet up on the Melbourne Cup. That is separate business for me. It is not part of the staking plan I follow the rest of the year. I was playing up my Broncos winnings, and I went in knowing exactly what I was putting at risk.

The key word there is separate. I put it on the side and I move on. If you blur a one-off annual play into your normal staking, you end up dragging it through every day that follows. You start chasing it back. You start staking your regular bets like they need to repair something. That is where punters get themselves into real trouble.

A planned bet is not an emotional bet

Some people will say that is emotion taking over. I do not see it that way. Emotion is when you are twenty minutes out, you are losing on the day, and you think you will have a lash at the Cup to get square. That is spur of the moment. That is a chase.

Mine was a conscious decision I had been working towards for three months. By the time those 24 horses were in the barriers, I was happy with what I had done. I am still happy with it now, even though it lost. If I could turn it around I would tell myself not to do it, but nobody knows the result before the race. All I can judge is the decision I made with what I had in front of me.

You control the work, not the result

The result of that race was out of my control. I cannot control results. I can only control the work and the execution. That is the whole thing.

When the Cup was over I did not sit there dwelling on it. Kembla was going in seven minutes. So we get into it. We attack. We get back on track and do the job. Keep betting, keep following the staking plan, keep following the selections, keep doing the work day in and day out. That is the system that has got me to where I am. Head down, follow the plan, and the results come.

That is also why one losing day, even a big one, does not move me off course. The 28% strike rate and the 15% on the day tell me the work was fine. The staking on that one race is a separate story with its own reasons.

So be honest with yourself about which kind of bet you just had. If it was planned months out and sized on purpose, wear the result and move to the next race. If it came out of nowhere because you were down, that is the one to fix.

Next year, God willing, I will be doing exactly the same thing again. But I will be backing the winner.

Every race on the card, rated, with Kingsley's selections and the speed maps behind them. Your first day is free, no card needed.

More from Kingsley

• How Race Pressure and Cruising Metrics Find Winners
• How Much Value Do You Need Before Laying a Horse?
• "Why Does a Horse Only Win Off a Slow Early Tempo?"

From the full video: My Cup Week Reality...

Gamble responsibly. 18+. If gambling is a problem for you, call Gambling Help on 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au