Why a Fast Last 200 Can Be Completely Misleading

Recorded August 2025 for Max Bet Ep 2: Darwin Dirt, Rosehill Heavy & The Danger of One-Paced Horses. Any figures mentioned are from that time.

A fast closing sectional looks good on paper, but it only means something when you know what happened in front of it. A horse can post a strong acceleration figure simply because the race crawled early and it was sitting close to the speed. That is not the same thing as a horse that accelerated hard after a genuine tempo. If you take the number at face value, you end up backing something that has never been asked the question you think it has answered.

The Sly Boots example

Sly Boots won last start and shows a rating of 88 over 1,900 metres. That rating looks fine on its own. Then you look at how it was run. The early tempo was very slow, with a slow two six hundred at 57, and Sly Boots sat third. So while the acceleration figure of one fourteen is quite high, it came off a very slow early tempo while the horse was parked in the box seat. That is a big advantage, not a big performance.

Go back through the rest of the form and the pattern repeats. The only other win was also off a very slow tempo, over 1,400 metres. Both wins came in those conditions. Whenever there has been a bit of pace on, Sly Boots has struggled, including a below average run. On a wet track, I think the winner of this race is going to be a horse that runs a strong 2,000 metres, and I am not convinced Sly Boots has a strong 2,000 in it, even though it won last start. The factors flag it too, with a low favours last start and a low cam score. My concern is the acceleration in the straight.

Upside and why some horses are short

The favourite in that race has been found out on the figures, but the case for it is all about upside, and the replay backs that up. The negative is a low strength rating. I do not mind a low strength rating so much when the horse clearly has upside in front of it. When you see that combination, the horse is often short in the market, because the market is pricing in improvement it has not made yet.

The hard part is that nobody knows how much upside there is. That is the trick when you are doing the form and trying to estimate the market. How much improvement do you build into this horse, and is the price already asking for more than it can deliver? Compare that to Piggy Banks, which has had 13 starts. It is still improving, but it does not have as much improvement left in it.

What the figures say about improvement

As a general rule, and the figures back this up, horses improve from first to second start, then improve gradually up to about 15 starts, where they tend to level out. That is a generic comment, but it is what the numbers show. It gives you a rough frame for how much benefit of the doubt to give a lightly raced horse, and when to stop giving it.

So when a horse shows you a fast last 200, check the early tempo and the map before you get excited. Then ask whether the improvement you are counting on is still ahead of the horse, or already behind it.

Every race on the card, rated, with Kingsley's selections and the speed maps behind them. Your first day is free, no card needed.

More from Kingsley

• "Why Do I Look for a Peak Rating in the Form?"
• How Much Do You Move Your Own Price When You Bet?
• "Why Can't a Professional Punter Get a Bet On?"

From the full video: Max Bet Ep 2: Darwin Dirt, Rosehill Heavy & The Danger of One-Paced Horses

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