Which Races a Professional Punter Avoids and Which He Bets Up In

Recorded June 2025 for How to Punt Like a Pro in 2025 (Staking, Price, Mindset + Full Strategy Breakdown). Any figures mentioned are from that time.

Not every race is worth a bet. A big part of making this work is knowing which meetings to walk away from and which ones to lean into. I don't need to have an opinion on every event. I'd rather pass on a whole meeting than fight conditions I don't read well. Below are the filters I use, both the ones that make me pin a meeting and the ones that give me more confidence.

The meetings I pin

When the rail is completely off, I pin the meeting. By that I mean the horses are all coming down the middle of the track or out near the outside fence. I never used to do this, but now I'll often pin a meeting after race two if I see that pattern. I just don't do well on those days. Heavy tens are the same. I don't bet on them anymore. The related problem is rain during the day. A track can get downgraded mid-meeting, so if I see a lot of wind and a lot of rain forecast, I'll pin that meeting too rather than chase a surface that keeps changing under me.

Too many question marks

I don't like betting into races full of unknowns. Multiple first starters is the clearest example. We don't know what they're going to do. First up horses are similar, because they can improve a long way on what they've shown. Overseas runners fall into the same bucket. All of these can produce upset results, and they make the form much harder to trust.

The other thing that makes me wary is a horse that maps in the back 25% of the field. That's especially true in higher class races and especially at short odds. In a good race it's hard to make up ground from back there. You need enormous acceleration to do it. If I see a horse that's going to get back, I'm tentative, and I'd also be inclined to wait on the price. On pace horses are much more likely to firm.

The setups I bet up in

I like a race where there's a lay in the first two of the market, the favourite or the second favourite. That tells me there's a bit of an advantage available in that market, so those are the races I gravitate to.

I also like historically biased tracks and distances. A track like Caulfield used to be very leaderish in the old days. Distance matters as much as the track. Certain tracks have a short run to a sharp first turn, so inside barriers are an advantage and horses can get on pace. I love betting those. Taking even money over a thousand metres somewhere like Forbes, with a short run, and the thing pings out of barrier one, goes straight to the front and wins by six lengths. It's never free money, but it can feel like it.

I'd rather back a horse third run into a prep. First up runs can produce unexpected results, and second up after a first up win can do the same. By the third run I have a clearer read.

When the tempo suits

Race pressure is the last filter. A slow tempo suits on pace horses. A fast tempo suits the back markers, especially over 1600, 1800, 2000 and further. Over those trips, if the speed is on, it's very hard to lead and very hard to be in the first couple and still be there at the finish.

Use these as filters, not as tips. Work out the conditions where your reading of a race holds up, then pass on the rest without feeling like you've missed anything.

Every race on the card, rated, with Kingsley's selections and the speed maps behind them. Your first day is free, no card needed.

More from Kingsley

• How Bart Cummings Trained Twelve Melbourne Cup Winners
• "What Should I Do If I Miss the Price?"
• "Should I Take a Bookie's Price or Bet on Betfair?"

From the full video: How to Punt Like a Pro in 2025 (Staking, Price, Mindset + Full Strategy Breakdown)

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