"What Sort of Racing Do You Get Your Best Results From?"

Kingsley on SEN radio with racing.com. Segment courtesy of SEN x racing.com.

People often ask me which part of racing I do best in. Is it maidens? Metro meetings? Benchmark 58s? Horses resuming from a spell? First-uppers? It is a fair question, but my answer sits somewhere else entirely. My best results have not come from a race type at all. They have come from tracks that are carrying a bias, and in particular tracks that favour leaders.

Why a bias beats a race type

When you pick a race type as your specialty, you are betting the same kind of race week after week and hoping your read on the form is better than everyone else's. That can work, but the edge is thin because everyone is looking at the same thing.

A biased track is different. The track itself is changing the result. Horses that get to the front are getting an advantage that has nothing to do with their form lines. That advantage is real, it is repeatable across a day, and plenty of punters either do not notice it or refuse to adjust for it. That gap between what the track is doing and what the market is pricing is where I have made my best money.

The tracks where I have found it

Caulfield used to be a good example. Back in the day it was extremely leader friendly, and you could get on knowing that a horse rolling forward had a genuine edge. Moonee Valley is another one. When the Valley is leaning towards leaders, it is a track I want to be involved in.

It is not only about leaders either. Sometimes the inside section of the track is off. Morphettville is one where that can happen. The rail may be in a certain spot, the ground close to the fence has taken a beating, and horses hugging the inside are running into worse footing than horses out a bit. Same idea, different shape. The track is handing out an advantage based on where a horse is running, not how good it is.

Unfair tracks are good for punters

There is a common line in racing that a track has to be fair. I understand why people say it. Nobody likes seeing a well-backed horse beaten by the surface. But who says a track that is not fair is a bad thing for a punter?

An unfair track gives you something to work with. It creates a pattern you can read during the day and apply to the races still to come. A perfectly even surface gives you nothing extra. Everyone is back to the form guide. The unfair one gives you information that is available to you in real time, and the market does not always move fast enough to reflect it.

The key is that you have to be watching. A bias is not something you can plan a week out. You pick it up from the early races, you confirm it as the day goes on, and then you look for horses that suit the pattern and races where the market has not accounted for it.

So if you are trying to find your own area, do not assume it has to be a race class or a type of runner. Watch the tracks. Work out what the surface is doing on the day, and let that tell you which races are worth betting into.

Every race on the card, rated, with Kingsley's selections and the speed maps behind them. Your first day is free, no card needed.

More from Kingsley

• "Should You Use Finishing Speed Percentage in Your Form?"
• Why Every Punter Eventually Has to Reinvent Themselves
• Why Is Every Bet Just an Edge and Not a Moral?

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