How Much Does Weight Really Matter in a Melbourne Cup?
Weight matters more the further a horse runs, and in a two mile handicap the winning weights sit in a fairly narrow band.
Video
Why Extra Bets in a Race Wreck Your Profit
My top selection makes a profit, but my second, third and fourth picks all lose money. Here is why extra bets in a race kill your edge.
"Did You Let Emotion Take Over in the Melbourne Cup?"
Why I don't regret overstaking the Melbourne Cup, and how I keep a planned annual bet separate from my day-to-day staking.
How Race Pressure and Cruising Metrics Find Winners
Race pressure and cruising numbers measure different things, and knowing the difference helps you find horses the tempo suits.
How Much Value Do You Need Before Laying a Horse?
How big does the gap between your rated price and the best market price need to be before a lay is worth taking?
"Why Does a Horse Only Win Off a Slow Early Tempo?"
Some horses only win off a slow early tempo, and cruising and acceleration ratings show you which ones before the race is run.
How Much Should Track Condition Change Your Prices?
Why a horse with elite ratings can be unbackable on a heavy track, and how to check its actual wet-track ratings.