Ballarat Race 6 Preview: Wintery Maps To Lead In Fast Tempo

A fast-tempo sprint at Ballarat with eight runners, drizzle about and the rail out five metres, and a rated favourite who maps in front. Race 6 jumps at 4:00pm AEDT for $35,000, and it is free to view fully rated on theking.zone today.

The race

Eight go around on a Good surface with the rail out five metres the entire circuit, and the forecast drizzle is the one variable that could shift things between now and the jump. It is a short-course affair — Gunz (2) has two wins and three placings from six starts at 1000m, Brummagen (10) is 0 from 11 at the trip — so there is nowhere to hide and very little time to make up ground.

Three of the four horses Kingsley rates hardest are resuming or second-up, which is part of what makes this interesting: the class numbers and the fitness angles pull in different directions.

The pace picture

The tempo band reads Fast with a pressure figure of 79.25 per cent, and that number matters more here than in almost any other race shape. Wintery (4) is the only runner with a predicted in-running position of 1, so she is the one who maps to lead, with Brummagen next closest at 2 and Gunz at 3 from barrier four. Brummagen rolling forward from the inside alongside a genuine leader is how a 1000m dash gets hot.

That shape cuts both ways. It is the single best thing going for the runners dropping out the back — Nordic Strike (3) at 5, Skjaldmo (9) at 7, Divine Vicky (7) at 8 and El Salto (12) at 9 — because a genuine speed battle is the only thing that drags a leader back to them. It also means Wintery has to be good enough to withstand pressure she will take on herself.

Kingsley's four

His top pick is Wintery (4), rated $2.60 against a $2.80 market this morning, so the rated line is marginally shorter than the opening price. She won her Colac trial leading in, settles on the speed, and the draw in five is no issue. The caveats are honest ones: she is resuming and 60.5kg is a rise, though she is racing a touch easier today.

His second pick is Nordic Strike (3), rated $7 against a $6.50 market this morning. He held his ground without cover on a Heavy 9 at Warrnambool last start and the bare third placing undersells it. Maher has him at his home track, and while Nordic Strike will settle further back than ideal with a predicted position of 5, the hot speed on paper is precisely the thing that gives him a target.

His third pick is Skjaldmo (9), rated $7 against a $4.80 market this morning — the market is shorter than the rated line there. She won here at Ballarat last start, jumped fast and fought on under pressure, and Egan sticks. Her predicted position of 7 has her further back than her last-start pattern suggests, and this is a harder assignment second-up.

His fourth pick is Gunz (2), rated $5.50 against a $4.80 market this morning. He trialled well at Seymour, loves the trip, and tops the field on one key rating — but 61.5kg first-up is the catch.

There are no official Golden Bullet or Good Roughie tips in this race.

What the metrics say

CSW is the class-speed-weight time rating, and Gunz ranks first on it at 84.84, narrowly ahead of Nordic Strike at 84.58 and Wintery at 84.37 — three horses inside half a point, which is why the top of this market is tight.

CAM is the composite ability measure, and Skjaldmo leads the field at 78.4248, with Divine Vicky second and Wintery third. Cruising speed, the sustainable tempo a horse can hold, has Brummagen top at 86.6 from Wintery at 85.8 and Skjaldmo at 82.8 — the leader and the second-closest horse both rating high there, another pointer to a genuine speed battle. Acceleration, the turn-of-foot measure, is headed by Divine Vicky at 74.2784 from Skjaldmo at 72.7034, with Nordic Strike third. Divine Vicky's problem is geography: the sharpest sprint in the race is attached to a predicted position of 8 over 1000m, and she is 430 days since a win with blinkers on for the first time.

The market read

The widest splits between the rated line and this morning's prices sit at the bottom of the market: El Salto rated $67 against a $34 market, and Brummagen rated $51 against a $41 market. Kooralbyn (5) is rated $16 against a $15 market and Divine Vicky rated $16 against a $16 market — the rated card and the market essentially agree on those two.

Watch the first 200 metres: if Brummagen takes Wintery on, the back half of this field gets its one chance.

Pre-race analysis, published before the jump. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.

Every race on the card, rated, with Kingsley's selections and the speed maps behind them. Your first day is free, no card needed.

The interactive version of this preview, with the rated card and Kingsley's selections, is at theking.zone.