Mornington Race 6 Preview: Rated Prices, Pace And Tips
Mornington Race 6 preview: a six-horse mile with an average tempo, Kingsley's top four, rated prices versus the market and the full metric read.
A six-horse field for $100,000 at Mornington, run over the mile on a Good surface with the rail out to its true entire circuit position. Small fields can go one of two ways, and the pace numbers here point firmly towards the second.
The race
Mornington Race 6 jumps at 4:00pm AEDT under partly cloudy skies. Six runners, weights spread from 60kg on Lim's Saltoro down to 54kg on both Presser and Reset The Jazz, and a genuine split in the field between the horses that get there early and the horses that arrive late. The betting at release was tight at the top: four of the six were inside a $6.00 market this morning.
The mile is the common thread. Lim's Saltoro brings a 10-wins-from-21 record overall, Wonder Boy is two from four at the trip, Presser four from 20 and Reset The Jazz five from 18. This is a race of specialists rather than a race of improvers.
The pace picture
The tempo band reads Average with a pressure figure of 41.5 per cent, which is a soft-to-moderate reading. Nothing in the shape suggests a runaway or a crawl, but it does suggest the leaders will not be hounded.
PPIR is the predicted in-run position, where 1 means a runner settles closest to the lead. Lim's Saltoro is the horse that maps to lead here, with Charterhouse next closest and Reset The Jazz third. Aztec Ruler sits mid-pack, and the two with the real finishing speed are last and second-last off the map: Presser at five and Wonder Boy at six.
That is the tension in the race. A 41.5 per cent pressure reading flatters the horse rolling forward from barrier three and asks a question of the pair giving themselves ground to make up. Wonder Boy's last start was a case study in the wrong shape — slow away, stranded at the back, never in it — and he needs the tempo to be more honest than the band implies.
Kingsley's selections
His top pick is Wonder Boy (2), rated $4.20 against a $4.00 market this morning. Third-up, trained on this circuit, with J Mott in the saddle and one of the two most potent finishing bursts in the race. The last run is forgivable on the shape alone.
His second pick is Lim's Saltoro (1), rated $3.60 against a $3.00 market this morning. He rates the best in the field on time, and the Seymour run reads better than the result: he missed the kick, still got to the leader's girth at the turn and was only collared late. The 4.5kg rise to 60kg is the one line of resistance.
His third pick is Presser (5), rated $5.50 against a $4.60 market this morning. He drops 4kg to 54, draws the inside gate, and the mile is squarely his trip. He merely battled home at Caulfield, so there is improvement required.
His fourth pick is Reset The Jazz (6), rated $8.00 against a $6.00 market this morning. He comes in 7.5kg lighter than last start with Jye McNeil aboard and was vetted clear after a flat one at Coonamble, where the rider felt he wanted more give in the ground.
Kingsley is taking on Aztec Ruler (3), rated $7.00 against a $4.80 market this morning — winless for close to two years, up 4kg backing up inside seven days, and at a trip beyond his best. Charterhouse (4) is rated $34.00 against a $23.00 market this morning and is a nine-year-old with 51 starts who lost touch last time.
The metrics
CAM is the composite ability rating, the broad measure of a horse's quality. Presser tops it at 88.90, with Wonder Boy second on 87.53; Charterhouse is last of the six.
CSW is the class-speed-weight time rating. Lim's Saltoro ranks first at 95.78, Presser second on 94.30. Wonder Boy ranks last on that measure, which is the honest counter to his case.
Cruising speed measures the tempo a horse can sustain mid-race, and Reset The Jazz ranks first at 89.2, from Lim's Saltoro on 87.7. Acceleration measures the finishing burst: Presser ranks first at 95.79, Wonder Boy second at 94.07, with Charterhouse owning the slowest closing speed in the field.
What to watch: whether Lim's Saltoro can dictate at his own tempo from barrier three, because at 41.5 per cent pressure the closers need him to be busier than that.
Pre-race analysis, published before the jump. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
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