Bendigo Race 6 Preview: Rated Prices, Pace And Tips
Bendigo Race 6 preview: Kingsley's top four, rated prices against the release market, the pace map and the CAM, CSW and acceleration standouts.
Nine go around in Race 6 at Bendigo at 4:20pm AEST for $35,000, and the story is a short-priced favourite being asked a question over 1300m while the market and the ratings argue about almost everyone behind her.
The race
Fine weather, a Good surface and the rail out at its True Entire Circuit position — no tricks in the conditions. The field is nine, the weights range from 62.5kg down to 54kg, and the shape of it is a small band of genuine contenders with a couple of runners who look outclassed on the numbers. Craig Williams, Patrick Moloney and L Currie all have rides here, so the riding strength is concentrated at the business end of the market.
There are no Golden Bullet or Good Roughie official tips attached to this race, which leaves Kingsley's own four-deep line-up to do the talking.
The pace picture
The tempo band reads Average with a pressure figure of 37.27 per cent — a soft-to-fair speed rather than a race that collapses under its own weight. That matters, because there is no runner in here screaming out to burn.
Predicted in-running position (ppir, where 1 means settling closest to the lead) has The Muffin Man (5) rated the closest to the speed, though Kingsley's read is that he is more likely to be ridden quietly and asked to pick them up late. Behind him, Rivazza (10) and Moral Turpitude (9) are next-most forward, with Justique (6) the next in that band. The genuine chances sit mid-pack: Hydrothermal (7) at a ppir of 5, Bella Verona (3) at 6 and Endless Summer (1) at 7.
So the race maps as a moderate-tempo affair with the favourite and the fitter stayer both needing to make ground rather than steal it. The one runner with a licence to roll forward is Hydrothermal from the inside gate — that is his pattern, and an Average tempo is exactly the sort of race in which a forward horse with the best cruising speed is hard to run down.
Kingsley's selections
His top pick is Bella Verona (3), rated $2.00 against a $1.95 market this morning — which tells you he sees her as the clear best in the race and still thinks the price is skinny. She has only three starts, so there is improvement to come, she was caught wide at Sandown last time and still fought on, and this is an easier assignment. The back-up to 1300m is the one unknown.
His second pick is Endless Summer (1), rated $10 against an $8.50 market. He is third-up and fitter for it, was stuck without room at Bendigo last time before finishing off strongly once clear, and from barrier 2 he should get a handy trip over the same trip. The 62.5kg is the obvious handbrake.
His third pick is The Muffin Man (5), rated $15 against a $9.00 market — a clear disagreement with the market. He trialled well at Kerang, has drawn far better than last start and has a rider upgrade, but he needs the gaps to appear.
His fourth pick is Hydrothermal (7), rated $5.50 against a $4.40 market. He won well at Geelong three weeks ago with the run of the race, and Williams from gate 1 is a meaningful positive.
Of the rest, Justique (6) is rated $14 against an $8.50 market, resuming from the outside gate after doing too much work last start — a runner Kingsley is happy to oppose. Mister Martini (4) is rated $14 against a $9.50 market, resuming and likely to be well back over a trip shorter than ideal.
The metrics
CSW, the class-speed-weight time rating, has Bella Verona on top at 93.36 and by a clear margin — Mister Martini is next on 86.21. CAM, the composite ability measure, tells a different story: Blue Typhoon (8) ranks first at 81.86, with Endless Summer second at 78.69 and The Muffin Man third. Blue Typhoon also owns the best acceleration figure at 98.50, well clear of The Muffin Man's second-ranked 88.24 — but she is rated to settle last of the nine, and at rated $67 against a $26 market she is a hard proposition here. Cruising speed, the sustainable tempo a horse can hold, is headed by Hydrothermal at 78.8 from Endless Summer at 76.3.
What to watch: whether Hydrothermal uses gate 1 to take control of an Average tempo, because that is the scenario in which the favourite's 1300m question gets asked properly.
Pre-race analysis, published before the jump. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Every race on the card, rated, with Kingsley's selections and the speed maps behind them. Your first day is free, no card needed.
The interactive version of this preview, with the rated card and Kingsley's selections, is at theking.zone.