Illawarra Grange Race 6 Preview: Tips And Rated Prices
Illawarra Grange Race 6 preview: very fast tempo, Kingsley's top four, rated prices against the morning market and the metrics that matter.
Eight runners, $42,000 on offer and a tempo reading that shapes the whole race. Illawarra Grange Race 6 jumps at 4:40pm AEST, and the closers hold the whip hand.
The race
Fine weather, a good surface and the rail in the true position — no excuses on offer at Illawarra Grange this afternoon. Eight go around over the 42,000-dollar event, with weights spanning 62.5kg down to 56kg, and a field small enough that a barrier draw matters less than where a horse can get to in the first 400 metres.
The pace picture
The tempo band here reads Very Fast, with a pressure figure of 86.69 per cent. That is not a race that gets away with a soft lead, and it reframes every runner on the card. Predicted in-running position (ppir) tells you where a horse settles — the lower the number, the closer to the lead. Ivy Legend (10) has the lowest of the eight at 2, with Wealthy Investor (13) at 3 the next closest, and Satness (1) rolling forward from a five. At the other end, Powder Man (5) on 14 and Laurel Hill (3) on 12 are the ones giving away ground early and asking for a collapse up front.
Given the pressure reading, that is the shape you want. It also puts a question against Beverly Hills (11), who maps forward on a seven off barrier one and has to burn to hold a spot into a tempo like this.
Kingsley's selections
His top pick is Glastonbury Girl (4), and there is very little argument about it. She was held up for a run at Gosford and still finished off strongly once she got clear, and she rates on top of this field with the sharpest closing burst in the race by a clear margin. Zac Lloyd is a genuine positive. The step up in trip is covered by her acceleration profile. Rated $2.40 against a $2.50 market this morning, she is close to correctly priced rather than any sort of overlay.
His second pick is Powder Man (5), who missed the start at Wyong and still stormed home for second — a far better effort than the placing suggests. Nash Rawiller takes over, the draw is a big improvement, and from a ppir of 14 he is exactly the type to be collecting tiring runners late in a very fast race. The 936-day gap between wins is the obvious knock. Rated $13 against a $9.00 market this morning, so Kingsley has him longer than the market does.
His third pick is Sizzler (9), who settles handy enough but hasn't won in more than 500 days and sits below the main players on ratings — a place-chance inclusion rather than a winning conviction. Rated $18 against a $13 market this morning.
His fourth pick is Ivy Legend (10), who kept on well at Hawkesbury and has the winkers off again. The reservation is the drop back in distance from 1800m for a horse that wants further, and the weakest finishing speed among the four selections. Rated $16 against a $9.50 market this morning.
One to take on: Beverly Hills (11) is rated $3.40 against a $2.70 market this morning, rates bottom of the field on CSW, hasn't won in 334 days and ran second in weaker grade last start. Laurel Hill (3) is the one outside the four worth respecting — second on CSW, third on acceleration, barrier two in a small field, and rated $34 against a $19 market this morning. No official Golden Bullet or Good Roughie tips have been issued in this race.
The metrics
CAM is the composite ability figure, the all-in rating of a horse's overall quality: Glastonbury Girl leads it on 79.3096, from Laurel Hill on 75.0778 and Satness on 75.0699. CSW is the class-speed-weight time rating, which prices a horse's best time against the grade and weight it carried — again Glastonbury Girl on top at 88.24, with Laurel Hill 86.70 second and Satness 85.05 third.
Cruising speed measures the tempo a horse can sustain mid-race, and that is Satness's department: ranked first on 76, from Wealthy Investor 74.5 and Beverly Hills 72.5. Acceleration measures the finishing burst, and Glastonbury Girl tops it at 90.9886, with Powder Man second on 84.1585 and Laurel Hill third on 83.5609.
Where the market sits
The short of it: the two at the head of the market are rated $2.40 and $3.40 against $2.50 and $2.70 this morning, and only one of them rates on top of this field.
What to watch: how hard Beverly Hills has to work early from barrier one — if that burn is real, the closers take over.
Pre-race analysis, published before the jump. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Every race on the card, rated, with Kingsley's selections and the speed maps behind them. Your first day is free, no card needed.
The interactive version of this preview, with the rated card and Kingsley's selections, is at theking.zone.