Illawarra Grange Race 6 Preview: Tips And Rated Prices
Illawarra Grange Race 6 preview: very fast tempo, Kingsley's top four, rated prices against the morning market and the metrics that matter.
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How Far Back Should You Go When Rating a Horse?
When you rate a horse for a mile, which past runs should count and how far back into its career should you look?
How to Check If an Overseas Horse Can Handle a Fast Pace
Before backing an imported sprinter, I check whether its overseas form includes a run at the tempo I expect in the race ahead.
Why Long Shots Can Show a Better Return With Fewer Winners
A low strike rate at big odds can return more than a high strike rate at short odds, and small samples do not prove much.
How a Cruising and Acceleration Rating Works in Race Analysis
What a cruising rating and an acceleration rating actually tell you, and why raw ratings can flatter a lightly weighted horse.
Why a Fast Last 200 Can Be Completely Misleading
A big last-200 figure off a crawling early tempo doesn't tell you much, so here's how I read acceleration in context.
"Why Do I Look for a Peak Rating in the Form?"
Why I hunt for a peak rating in the form, and why two horses on the same number can be heading in opposite directions.