"Is There Any Value Left in Futures Markets?"

Kingsley on SEN radio with racing.com. Segment courtesy of SEN x racing.com.

I get asked a lot whether there is still any value in cups futures, especially now that the corporate bookmakers seem to react much faster than they used to. One listener put it well. He got Highwayman at the hundreds and it was wound in within minutes, where a few years back you might have had twelve hours before the market moved. My honest answer is that I agree the corporates are getting smarter, and I do not bet into futures markets at all. Even if I could get on, I would not do it.

The percentage is the first problem

There is a lot of percentage in those futures markets. That is the part people skip past when they are excited about a big quote months out. You are not just trying to pick the right horse. You are trying to beat a market that has been framed with a lot of margin built into it, and you are doing that with the least information you will ever have about that race. The field is not set. The lead-up form has not happened. The track and the weather are unknown. You are paying the widest margin at the moment you know the least.

You are risking too much for too long

The other issue is what happens to your money. Once it is on, it is gone from your account for weeks or months. You cannot use it. You cannot react to anything. A horse gets injured, a horse gets scratched, a horse turns up out of form, and you are just sitting there watching. I would rather wait until the day of the race. On the day I know who is running, I know the track, and I can make the bet on what is actually in front of me instead of what I hoped would happen back when the market opened.

The flip side of waiting

I will be honest, waiting does not always feel good either. I liked a trotter recently. The fixed odds came out with the TAB, which is usually first, and I had been waiting around a day and a half for those odds to appear. It was ten dollars. Before I knew it, it was into three, then two forty. I missed it. After all that waiting, it just goes. That ruins your day. It breaks your heart a bit.

But that is the cost of doing things the way I think is right. I would rather cop the occasional miss on a price than tie up money for months into a market with a big percentage in it. The miss stings for an afternoon. The other approach can tie you up for a whole preparation. You have to get over it and let it go, even when it is hard.

If futures are something you enjoy and you treat them as a bit of fun, that is your call. But if you are betting to make money, look at the percentage in the market first, then ask yourself what else you could have done with that money between now and race day. For me, the answer keeps coming back the same. Wait for the day.

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