How I Compare Ratings Between Rivals Before Betting

Recorded November 2025 for BEAST MODE!. Any figures mentioned are from that time.

Before I back a horse near the top of the market, I want to know what the horses behind it have to do to beat it. That means lining up their recent ratings next to each other and asking a simple question. If my top pick runs to the figure it just produced, can the danger get there at all? Most of the time that question answers itself once you look at the numbers properly.

Start with the rival, not your pick

Take Hedged. Good horse, but hasn't won for eight starts. He has run plenty of very good races in that time, including a third last start at Randwick behind Caballes after being held up. That is the sort of horse he is. He needs luck. He has won four races at about a twenty per cent strike rate, and he has drawn barrier two over 1,100 metres at Caulfield. From there he is probably midfield on the fence. He needs the gaps to come for him to attack the line and run down Beast Mode.

That matters because a horse who needs luck carries risk you can't rate. Beast Mode, on the other hand, takes luck out of the race. If he runs to the figure he produced last start, he doesn't need anything to go right.

Throw out the run that doesn't belong

Beast Mode rated 104 last time. Hedged has an 84 on the line before his latest run, and his most recent effort was a 100, which came when he was held up. Before that he was at 1,200 metres. Even though Hedged has a good record over 1,100, the ratings behind him are not consistent. If you take that 100 out, he is back to 95.

I don't throw a run out because it flatters the horse. I throw it out when it looks like the exception rather than the pattern. Here the pattern says Hedged is somewhere in the mid nineties. So I give him the benefit and assume a 98. That is the realistic number I expect him to produce.

Then ask what has to go wrong

For Hedged to be in the finish at 98, Beast Mode has to come back a fair way from 104. So the next job is deciding whether that drop is likely. The common argument is that the 104 came at Moonee Valley over 955 metres, and the Valley over a thousand metres is a leader-dominated track. I talk about that often, usually when horses go from the Valley to Flemington.

At Caulfield with the rail out six metres, I concede it isn't as much of a leader's track. But over 1,100 I think it still is. And the two things in Beast Mode's favour are the blinkers going on and the freshen up. He may regress a little. I don't think he regresses enough to let a 98 past him.

When the market has that race closer than the ratings do, that is where I want to be.

When you are weighing up a short-priced pick, do this before you look at anything else. Write down the rival's last few figures, strike the run that doesn't fit, assume the honest number, and see how far your horse has to fall. If the answer is a long way, the race is simpler than it looks.

Every race on the card, rated, with Kingsley's selections and the speed maps behind them. Your first day is free, no card needed.

More from Kingsley

• How a Cruising and Acceleration Rating Works
• How Do You Split Two Horses With the Same Rating?
• Can You Forgive a Beaten Favourite First Up?

From the full video: BEAST MODE!

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