Can You Forgive a Beaten Favourite First Up?

Recorded July 2025 for Max Bet Ep 1. Any figures mentioned are from that time.

A beaten favourite first up can look like a form line you want nothing to do with. Sometimes it is. But before I throw a run out, I go back and watch it properly, because the result on the page and what actually happened in the race are often two different things. Tarpaulin is a good example. He went around an odds on favourite first up and the run looked terrible. When you sit down and watch the replay, there is a reasonable explanation for most of it, and that changes how I treat him next start.

What actually happened in the run

He came out of a wide alley. He was expected to be more on pace, but he missed the kick a bit, then went forward and never really settled. He was ripping and reefing, three deep, in a slowly run race. That is about as much energy as a horse can waste in the first half of a race. Then he came around them on the turn and cruised up. If you were watching live at that point, you would have thought he was going to go straight past them. Over the last 100 metres he dropped off and the finish was extremely disappointing.

I put that down to the energy he used early and a lack of race fitness. First up, no miles in the legs, wide and pulling, and then asked to let down after all that. Something has to give, and it gave in the last 100. That is a different thing to a horse that travels nicely and has nothing left when the pressure goes on. One is a fitness and luck problem. The other is an ability problem.

The trial in between is the part most people skip

Since that run he has trialled, and the trial is worth watching. He jumped a lot better and settled a lot better. He showed good early speed and cruised up to lead. The rider did not go after him at any stage. It was only a 740 metre trial, so I am not going to make too much of the time or the margin. What matters is that it is a trial in between runs. More miles into the legs, a freshen up, and evidence that the settling issue from the first up run is not permanent.

The barrier question

He goes to barrier one next start, over 1100 metres, the same trip as the first up run. That is where I have a small issue. Barrier one helps him settle closer and saves ground, which is the opposite of what happened last time. But he is not going to lead, so he is probably three back on the fence. With a horse that did not want to settle last start, I am not certain whether being held in there is a positive or a negative. That is the honest question I am still working through.

When you see a beaten favourite first up, go and watch the replay before you make your mind up. Work out whether the horse wasted energy or simply was not good enough, then check whether anything has changed since. Fitness, a trial and a better barrier can all move a horse forward.

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More from Kingsley

• Spotting the Pattern of a Horse at the End of Its Preparation
• Why the Top Rated Horse Isn't Always the Best Bet
• Why Peak Ratings Tell You More Than Consistent Form

From the full video: Max Bet Ep 1 | Finding Bullets

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