How Do You Split Two Horses With the Same Rating?

Recorded July 2025 for Max Bet Ep 1. Any figures mentioned are from that time.

Same top rating does not make two horses equal

When I line up two rivals and they come out with nearly the same peak figure, the number on its own tells me very little. Kanamala and Deep Respect both show an overall rating around ninety, ninety point eight. That looks like a dead heat on paper. But one of those ratings was set over 1200 metres and the other over 1600 metres, and the race in question is over 1300. The whole job here is predicting what each horse is going to do under these conditions, not admiring what they have already done under different ones.

Where the peak rating was set matters more than the peak itself

Kanamala's best work is over 1600 metres. There is a 94 and a 92 at that trip. So you could argue Kanamala improves here, because the horse clearly has a high ceiling. But the ceiling was reached at a longer distance, off a different style of race. Deep Respect has been strong at the shorter trip, and you could just as easily argue Deep Respect sprints better over 1350 coming back off a fast pace.

So the real question is not which horse is better. It is which horse is suited. Is Kanamala actually better over 1600, given that is where the peak figures sit? That is a different question to asking who has the higher number next to their name.

Matching race strength, track and distance with past runs

This is where I like to dig. I look back through a horse's record and try to match up past runs with the race in front of me, on race strength, on track, and on distance. Kanamala has run two 1350 metre races at the same track. They were a fair while ago, which is worth noting. But the ratings from those runs are low. A 77 and a 76.

That is a long way below the 94 and the 92 at 1600. Yes, Kanamala will be fitter this time. That counts for something. But when the horse has been to this trip at this track before and produced those figures, I am entitled to ask whether the sprint is there.

When the raw numbers point one way and the detail points the other

On the surface, Kanamala looks the better sprinter. The acceleration figure reads one eighteen against one fifteen. If I stopped there, I would lean that way. But when I go into the distance, break it down and do the deeper work, my figures come out the other side. They say Deep Respect is more chance to win the race than Kanamala.

That is the point. The headline figure and the considered figure can disagree, and the considered figure is the one built from runs that look like the race being run.

When you have two horses with the same rating, do not stop at the rating. Find out where each horse set it, check whether they have been to this trip and this track before, and see what they produced when they did. More often than not, the separation is already there in the form if you go looking for it.

Every race on the card, rated, with Kingsley's selections and the speed maps behind them. Your first day is free, no card needed.

More from Kingsley

• Can You Forgive a Beaten Favourite First Up?
• Spotting the Pattern of a Horse at the End of Its Preparation
• Why the Top Rated Horse Isn't Always the Best Bet

From the full video: Max Bet Ep 1 | Finding Bullets

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