Why On-Pace Imports Struggle in Australian Races

Recorded November 2025 for Champions Day CHAOS - Why I'm Against Both Favourites in the Five Diamonds. Any figures mentioned are from that time.

Imports get plenty of attention when they arrive, and the ratings usually look fine. What I want to know first is how the horse likes to race. If it wants to be on the speed, the job here is harder than the job it had overseas. We go a bit harder in our races than they do over there. A front-runner that was comfortable in the UK can find itself under real pressure in Australia, and the ratings sheet does not show you that.

We run harder here

The horse I keep coming back to is Bullet Point. Haggis has brought him over and he has pretty solid UK ratings, mostly from the win two starts ago. On those numbers he sits about where Rise At Dawn sits, so maybe a couple of lengths off the top horses in the race. That is not a bad place to start from. But he is an on-pacer, and that is where I start marking him down.

It is hard to come across here and win anyway. New country, new way of racing, different tempo. I think it is even harder to come across here and win if you are an on-pacer. The horse has to work harder early just to hold its spot, and then it has to do it again in the straight. Horses that settle back can be carried along by the tempo. Horses that lead or sit outside the leader have to pay for it.

The last start tells you something

The other thing I do not like about Bullet Point is the last start. He sat second, outside the leader at York, and dropped out. That is a really poor run. A horse that could not sustain that role over there is now being asked to do it in races that are run harder. One poor run is not the whole story, but when it lines up with the pressure problem, it matters.

That is why I rate the shape of a horse's past runs alongside the rating. A rating tells you how good the horse has been. It does not tell you whether it got there the easy way or the hard way, and it does not tell you whether that pattern will survive the move.

Count the pace and look at the draw

The next job is to count how many horses in the race actually want to be in front. In this race there is a lot of pace drawn close to the fence, with Bullet Point and Rise At Dawn both in that part of the track. Then you have pace coming from out wide through Transatlantic. And there are a few others that go forward as well. Lou goes forward. Fukubana goes forward. Shadizi can also go forward.

So there is a lot of pace in this race. When you add it up like that, the picture gets clear. The horses that want the lead are going to make life uncomfortable for each other, and the import with a question mark over race pressure is sitting right in the middle of it. I also think Rise At Dawn will be tested by 1,800 metres with that early tempo.

When you look at an import, find out how it wants to race before you look at anything else. Then count the other horses that want the same spot and see where they are drawn. That will tell you more than the rating will.

Every race on the card, rated, with Kingsley's selections and the speed maps behind them. Your first day is free, no card needed.

More from Kingsley

• Why Sprint Races Are Their Own Beast
• How I Decide Whether to Accept the Risk of Getting Trapped Wide
• How Track Bias Can Make a Good Run Look Ordinary

From the full video: Champions Day CHAOS - Why I'm Against Both Favourites in the Five Diamonds

Gamble responsibly. 18+. If gambling is a problem for you, call Gambling Help on 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au