How Track Bias Can Make a Good Run Look Ordinary

Recorded October 2025 for My $1,000,000 Melbourne Cup Bet. Any figures mentioned are from that time.

Margins lie. Where a horse raced on the track often tells you more than the gap at the line. A horse that finishes a few lengths away can have run a much better race than one that beat it home, simply because one was on the part of the track that was working and the other was not. That is why I go back and look at where the field travelled before I decide whether a run was good or ordinary.

What the first five home tell you

In a Cup last year, the first five horses all came through the inside. That is the first clue. When the placings all come from the same part of the track, it usually is not a coincidence. It is the track telling you where the ground was best. The horse I am interested in was out away from that, in what was clearly the wrong place to be. He had to do it the hard way the whole way. So when I look at his finishing position, I do not take it at face value. I ask what he had to do to get there, and the answer is a lot more than the ones who got the right run on the fence.

The next race is the confirmation

You do not have to guess at this. The race straight afterwards gave the answer. Fancify led all the way on the inside. A leader going all the way on the fence in the following event confirms what the Cup already suggested. The inside was where you wanted to be on that day's track. Once I have two races pointing the same way, I am comfortable calling it a bias rather than a one-off pattern.

So his run gets upgraded. It was a great run last year for what he had to do. Not because of where he finished, but because of where he was while he was doing it.

How I use it the next time out

An upgrade is not the same as a bet. He is up two and a half kilos on last year at fifty seven, and he has to run a strong 3,200 metres with that weight. He has a good jockey on his back and he is a class animal, but he needs a really soft run and he needs a fast pace, because he loves a fast one. If he draws out wide again and has to do work early to find a spot, that is a hard way to win a staying race. So I would not be on him to win. I would still be happy to use him underneath in my exotics, and I will wait to see what barrier he draws before I settle on anything.

When you go back through form, do not just read the margin. Look at where the first few home came from, then look at the races either side for confirmation. If a horse raced in the wrong part of the track, give the run credit, then work out separately whether the conditions next time actually suit.

Every race on the card, rated, with Kingsley's selections and the speed maps behind them. Your first day is free, no card needed.

More from Kingsley

• "Should You Bet When the Track Is Biased or the Rail Is Out?"
• Why You Should Bet Against Leaders Heading to Flemington
• How Track Bias Data Decides My Bet on a Heavy Track

From the full video: My $1,000,000 Melbourne Cup Bet

Gamble responsibly. 18+. If gambling is a problem for you, call Gambling Help on 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au