"Why Isn't Backing More Winners Making Me Money?"

Recorded August 2025 for How to Survive a Brutal Punting Weekend. Any figures mentioned are from that time.

One of the most common things I hear is that punting is about backing winners, not about value. It is wrong, and I can show you why with one of my own ratings factors. I use something I call upside factor, which means a horse I think will improve on its recent form compared to the rest of the field. Lightly raced types, mostly. It is a factor I like. It is also a factor the market is very good at finding, and that changes everything about how you use it.

The market already knows about the improvers

When I run upside factor on its own, with no filter on price, it comes back at about minus 7.8 per cent. That is a losing return on a factor I rate highly. The reason is simple. Bookmakers and the market are good at identifying lightly raced horses that look like they will improve. They find them, and quite often they overvalue them. The information is not a secret. Once everyone can see the same improver, it gets priced accordingly, and sometimes shorter than it should be.

The same factor, two very different results

So I split it. I looked at the upside factor runners where I thought the horse was good value against my own assessment, and separately at the ones where I thought the price was unders in early betting. Same factor, same idea about the horse. The good value group turned a solid profit. The unders group came back at minus 20 per cent. Nothing about the horses changed between those two groups. Only the price changed. That is the whole point. Price is not a detail you check after you have found the horse. With a factor like upside, it is the factor.

Thirty-seven per cent winners and still going backwards

The clearest example is the favourites. Upside factor horses get put up pretty short sometimes, and when I filter for favourites the strike rate is 37 per cent. You are backing a lot of winners. You are also doing your money. That combination is the thing people cannot get their head around. Compare it to a punter taking six dollar chances at seven dollars. He is backing fewer winners than you. You feel like you are going better every Saturday because you are cheering home more of them. His bank is growing and yours is shrinking. Winners feel good. Overlays pay.

If you take one thing from this, make it a habit to check your own factors both ways. Run the query, then run it again split by whether you had the horse as value or as unders. You will often find a factor you love is only profitable in one half of that split. That is analysis you can do yourself, with your own thinking, and it will tell you more than a strike rate ever will.

Every race on the card, rated, with Kingsley's selections and the speed maps behind them. Your first day is free, no card needed.

More from Kingsley

• How to Lay a Horse Shorter by Putting Up a Back Bet
• "Why Do You Still Lose Taking Top Price on Every Horse?"
• "Can You Find Value in Following Jockeys?"

From the full video: How to Survive a Brutal Punting Weekend | The Grind Ep 5

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