Moe Race 8 Preview: Rated Prices, Pace Read And Tips
Moe Race 8 preview: a 95% pressure reading over 2050m, Kingsley's top four with rated prices, and the CAM, CSW and acceleration standouts.
A $130,000 contest over 2050m at Moe in the drizzle, with the rail out to a true entire circuit and a pressure reading of 95.11 per cent. This is a race shaped by tempo, not by barriers.
The race
Ten go around at 4:40pm AEDT, and the weight range does the first bit of talking. Smokin' Romans (1) has 60.5kg on the 10-year-old's back, Magnaspin (2) carries 59kg and Makdane (3) 58.5kg, while five of the ten — Grand Pierro (6), Bring Forth (7), Regal Lion (8), Flying Valley (9) and My Brothers Keeper (10) — are in at the 54kg minimum. In a race projected to be run at a very fast clip, that spread matters more than usual: the weight-carriers are also, in the main, the ones expected to be doing the early work.
No Golden Bullet or Good Roughie has been issued in this race, so the rated card is the whole story.
The pace picture
The tempo band here is Very Fast, with pressure at 95.11 per cent — close to the ceiling. Smokin' Romans has a ppir of 1, the lowest in the field, which means he maps to lead; ppir measures predicted settling position, with 1 the closest to the front. Bring Forth (ppir 2) and Magnaspin (ppir 3) are the next pair forward, with Grand Pierro (ppir 4) and Makdane (ppir 5) in the first half of the field.
That is a hot front end, and it is carrying weight. A 10-year-old rolling forward under 60.5kg into a 95 per cent pressure reading over 2050m is the least comfortable assignment on the card. The flip side is obvious: the three runners mapped furthest back — The Pendragon (4) at ppir 9, Statuario (5) at ppir 8 and My Brothers Keeper at ppir 10, the deepest in the field — are the ones the shape is built for.
Kingsley's four
His top pick is My Brothers Keeper (10), rated $7 against a $6.50 market this morning. He missed the start at Flemington and still kept coming for fifth, which is forgivable in context, and he is the purest expression of this race shape: last off the bridle, with the finishing speed to use a collapsing tempo while the front end is in trouble late.
His second pick is Statuario (5), rated $9 against an $8 market. He drops 4kg on last start and swaps barrier 10 for barrier 2, a material improvement in setup, and he is third-up and fitter. The caveat is honest enough — he maps a long way back at ppir 8 and needs the race to fall apart in front of him.
His third pick is Flying Valley (9), rated $6.50 against a $5.50 market this morning, the shortest price in the race. He gets a 6.5kg weight drop, was caught wide at Flemington, and the Maher stable has him deep into the prep settling midfield from barrier 4. The reservation is distance: the ratings read 2050m as a stretch for him, which is why the rated price sits longer than the market's.
His fourth pick is Regal Lion (8), rated $17 against a $14 market, drawn the inside gate and dropping 6.5kg after battling three wide under 60.5kg. Third-up and fitter, but five wins from 56 starts is a strike rate that keeps him fourth rather than higher.
What the numbers say
CAM is the composite ability rating, and Makdane holds camRank 1, from The Pendragon (camRank 2) and Grand Pierro (camRank 3). CSW, the class-speed-weight time rating, has Magnaspin on top at cswRank 1, with Grand Pierro second and Regal Lion third.
Cruising speed measures the tempo a horse can sustain, and Smokin' Romans ranks 1 there, ahead of Magnaspin and Bring Forth — the forward trio again. Acceleration is the finishing-burst figure, and Grand Pierro ranks 1, from Makdane second and My Brothers Keeper third.
The screenshot line: the field's top three cruisers are the field's top three on-pace runners, and the top pick ranks last of ten on cruising speed and third on acceleration. This race is a straight argument between tempo and turn of foot.
Market against the ratings
The clearest disagreements are up the top. Makdane is rated $10 against a $7 market, The Pendragon rated $15 against a $10 market, Smokin' Romans rated $16 against an $11 market and Grand Pierro rated $9.50 against a $7.50 market. In each case the rated card is longer than this morning's figure.
What to watch: whether Smokin' Romans is allowed to lead cheaply, because if Bring Forth and Magnaspin press him, the back half of the field gets the race it is mapped for.
Pre-race analysis, published before the jump. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Every race on the card, rated, with Kingsley's selections and the speed maps behind them. Your first day is free, no card needed.
The interactive version of this preview, with the rated card and Kingsley's selections, is at theking.zone.