Gundagai Race 8 Preview: Rated Prices, Pace And Tips
Gundagai Race 8 preview: a very fast tempo, Kingsley's top four with rated prices, and why the market is shorter than his card on the favourites.
Gundagai's $100,000 feature, Race 8 over the line at 4:40pm AEDT, brings 12 together in the drizzle with the rail in the True position. It shapes as a very fast race on paper, and that single fact reorganises almost everything about how it should be run.
A wide-open feature with a brutal tempo reading
The pressure reading sits at 93.23 per cent inside a Very Fast tempo band — close to the top of the scale, and the clearest signal on the card that the leaders will be doing real work early rather than dictating terms. Kingsley's own read is blunt: he can't find an edge here, and his assessment of the race is that the market has shortened up the obvious names past where his numbers say they belong.
That shows up in the prices. Five runners sit at rated $8.50 or shorter — Alabama State and Komodo Dragon both rated $6, Ticklebelly rated $6.50, Bon Holler rated $8 and Vermicella rated $8.50 — and in every one of those cases the market at release was shorter again. It is a genuinely open race where the money has already been spent.
The pace picture: forward runners under pressure
Ticklebelly (1) is the one who maps to lead, with a PPIR of 1 — PPIR being the predicted in-running position, where 1 means settling closest to the speed. She is the defending Snake Gully Cup winner and ran well behind them at Randwick, but she carries 60kg and has to roll forward into that very fast tempo. Kingsley has her rated $6.50 against a $4.80 market this morning and is happy to take her on.
Behind her, Love Shuck (16) on a PPIR of 2 from barrier one and Flying Trapeze (3) on 3 fill out the front rank, with Bon Holler (10) next at 4 from the widest gate of the 12, and Komodo Dragon (8) at 5. That is a lot of on-pace intent for a race predicted to be run this hard, and in a contest over this trip it is the forward types who tend to pay for it.
The flip side belongs to the horses dropping out the back. Vermicella (9) has the rearmost PPIR at 12, I've Bean Tryin' (5) is next at 11, and Morning Darling (13) on 10 is the third furthest back. Alabama State (2) sits on 8 — far enough back to be let down late, close enough not to need miracles.
Kingsley's top four
His top pick is Alabama State (2), rated $6 against a $5.50 market this morning. The case is simple: the numbers say he is the best horse in the race and the shape of it suits a midfield runner perfectly. His Randwick run can be forgiven — he copped the breeze outside the leader with the tempo on and had nothing in reserve late. The problem is price, not form; there is no edge at those two figures.
His second pick is Bon Holler (10), rated $8 against a $6.50 market. She is fitter for the first-up run, winkers go on and blinkers come off, and she will be rolling forward from gate 12 — which is exactly the query, because the predicted tempo punishes that profile.
His third pick is I've Bean Tryin' (5), rated $14 against a $12 market, back in trip from 1600m with winkers on for the first time. The ratings are strong; the map is not, with that PPIR of 11. His fourth pick is Vermicella (9), rated $8.50 against a $7 market, resuming off 223 days but with three wins from four first-up, two trials in and a second at Queanbeyan most recently. She had no luck locked away at Randwick last start and gets well back again here.
The metrics
CAM is the composite ability rating, and Alabama State leads the field on it at 88.9252, from Graceful Ellen (12) second on 87.9214 and I've Bean Tryin' third on 86.1407. CSW — the class, speed and weight time rating — again has Alabama State clear on 94.13, with I've Bean Tryin' second on 91.52 and Vermicella third on 89.44.
Cruising speed measures how fast a horse can travel without exertion, and there the on-pace brigade own it: Ticklebelly ranks first at 96.4, Bon Holler second at 95.6, Love Shuck third at 93.6. Acceleration, the late-burst figure, flips it back — Alabama State ranks first at 90.2505, I've Bean Tryin' second at 88.6814, Graceful Ellen third at 86.2429. Flying Trapeze owns the worst acceleration figure in the field and is 741 days since a win.
What to watch: whether Ticklebelly can hold the front under 60kg in a race the pressure numbers say will be run at a sprint.
Pre-race analysis, published before the jump. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Every race on the card, rated, with Kingsley's selections and the speed maps behind them. Your first day is free, no card needed.
The interactive version of this preview, with the rated card and Kingsley's selections, is at theking.zone.