Warwick Farm Race 6 Preview: Rated Prices, Tips & Pace Map
Warwick Farm Race 6 preview: Kingsley's top four, rated prices against the morning market, the pace map and the CAM, CSW and acceleration standouts.
Nine run in the $60,000 feature at Warwick Farm on Wednesday, jumping at 5:15pm AEDT on a fine day with the rail in the True position. It is a race where the market and the ratings part company in two places, and the pace map explains why.
The race
This is a tight, competitive 1600m affair on a Good surface, and with only nine runners there is nowhere to hide. Matthew Smith saddles two, Brad Widdup two, and the riding list reads like a Saturday metropolitan card — Tommy Berry, James McDonald, Rachel King, Kerrin McEvoy, Tyler Schiller, Jason Collett, Regan Bayliss, Dylan Gibbons. There are no official Golden Bullet or Good Roughie tips attached to this event, so the rated card is doing all the talking.
The pace picture
The tempo band reads Average with a pressure figure of 31.75 per cent — a soft to moderate reading rather than a race likely to fall apart up front. In the predicted running positions, ppir measures how close a runner settles to the lead, with 1 being closest. Leica Storm (2) is the only runner with a ppir of 1, so he maps to lead. Autumn Winter sits next at 2, Burn The Sky at 3, and Chilli Margs at 4.
The back half is where the story is. Naina has a ppir of 8 and Sharp Shock a 9, meaning two of the most credentialled late runners are giving the leaders a long start in a nine-horse field over a mile at a tempo that does not promise to collapse. Sneaky Choice at 7 is in the same boat. If the pressure reading is right, the horses sitting closest to the speed with clean air hold a structural advantage.
Kingsley's four
His top pick is Chilli Margs (7), rated $2.60 against a $2.70 market this morning — the one runner on the card where Kingsley and the market essentially agree. Barrier one is the key change after she was caught three wide with no cover here last time and simply had no let-down left. She is third-up and fitter, Collett takes the ride, and she maps to settle just off the speed with the fence to work.
His second pick Leica Storm (2) is rated $8.50 against a $6.50 market this morning, so Kingsley wants more than the market is paying. The logic is clean: he leads, he is the best cruiser in the race, Berry taking over is a tick, and the 1900m shape at Newcastle last start was wrong for him. Back to a mile he is two from four.
His third pick Sneaky Choice (11) is rated $17 against a $13 market this morning. He missed the kick at Kembla and still finished powerfully for third over this trip; McEvoy is an upgrade. The finish is not in doubt, the position is. His fourth pick Sharp Shock (5) is rated $26 against a $19 market this morning, a horse who swung wide and ran them down at Newcastle 11 days ago. Harder race, same problem — he gets back and needs them to go hard.
The standout opinion is on Naina (3), rated $4.20 against a $3.10 market this morning. She is up 4.5kg on her last start and maps to be a long way back off a moderate tempo. Kingsley is content to take her on at those odds.
The numbers
CAM is the composite ability rating, the broad measure of how good a horse is. Sneaky Choice tops it at 83.26 with Chilli Margs a whisker behind on 83.18, and Leica Storm third on 81.76. CSW is the class-speed-weight time rating, and Autumn Winter heads that list on 90.07 — but he is resuming under 61.5kg and looks a horse crying out for further than a mile, so the top CSW figure comes with a health warning. Leica Storm is second on 88.04.
Cruising speed measures the tempo a horse can sustain without effort. Leica Storm ranks first at 87.3 from Bondi Blossom at 85.8 and Chilli Margs at 83.8. Acceleration measures the turn of foot off that cruise, and Sneaky Choice owns it, ranking first at 89.44 from Naina at 83.49 and Chilli Margs at 82.59.
Chilli Margs is the only runner in the field ranked top four on every one of the four metrics. That is the one-line case.
What to watch: whether Leica Storm gets to cross and control from barrier seven — if he does at that tempo, the ones at ppir 7, 8 and 9 have a problem.
Pre-race analysis, published before the jump. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Every race on the card, rated, with Kingsley's selections and the speed maps behind them. Your first day is free, no card needed.
The interactive version of this preview, with the rated card and Kingsley's selections, is at theking.zone.