Lismore Race 6 Preview: Barello Sweeps The Key Metrics
Lismore race 6 preview and tips: a very slow tempo, Kingsley's top four with rated prices against the market, and why Barello heads every metric.
A seven-horse field at Lismore on a fine afternoon, and a pace reading that shapes the whole contest before a stride is run. Race 6 jumps at 5:15pm AEDT for $27,000, and it is free to view fully rated on theking.zone today.
The race
Seven runners, the going rated G, the rail out 4.5m from the 850m to the 325m, in 1.5m from the 325m to the winning post and true the rest of the way. Weights range from Barello's 60.5kg down to 57kg for Chief Of Staff and Glounthaune. Small fields tend to reward position over raw finishing speed, and this one looks a textbook case.
The pace picture
The tempo band here is Very Slow, with a pressure reading of just 4.11 per cent. That is about as little early tension as a race card produces, and it matters more than any single form line in the race.
Five Rings (5) is the one runner with a ppir of 1, so he maps to lead from barrier 3. Dark Chill (6) is next closest on the ppir read, with Glounthaune (9) and Chief Of Staff (8) filling the next two spots. Barello (2) is fifth on the predicted settling order, Venom Wolf (3) sixth and Ballinderry Sal (4) last, which is the natural consequence of her barrier 7 draw.
So the shape is clean: a soft lead, a short field, and horses settling behind horses with very little gap between them. That is comfortable enough for Barello, who from the inside gate can take a spot just off the speed without burning anything. It is a genuine question for Venom Wolf, whose profile wants a race run quicker than this one projects, and it leaves Ballinderry Sal needing to make ground up wide or improve her position early.
Kingsley's selections
His top pick is Barello (2), rated $4.80 against a $4.20 market this morning. The case is simple: he heads the field on every ability measure that counts, barrier 1 gives him the trip he wants in a race with no pressure, and a seven-day back-up is not a concern. The weight rise at 60.5kg is the lone reservation.
His second pick is Venom Wolf (3), rated $6.50 against a $6.00 market. He missed the jump last start and still finished off his race strongly without landing a blow, and he gets a rider upgrade today. The caveat is the obvious one — he settles back, and on this tempo read he needs the race to be run faster than projected.
His third pick is Ballinderry Sal (4), rated $16 against a $14 market. She is trained on course and the map has her settling considerably closer than she did last time, which is the right move. The outside gate in a small field and a long spell between wins are the offsets.
His fourth pick is Glounthaune (9), rated $10 against an $8.50 market. He carries a class edge on most of this lot, his last run can be excused after he knuckled on jumping, and the tongue tie comes off.
Against them, Kingsley has Chief Of Staff (8) at rated $3.80 versus a $3.00 market and Dark Chill (6) at rated $8.50 versus a $5.50 market as runners the market has considerably shorter than his own assessment. Five Rings (5) is rated $10 against a $7.00 market. There are no official Golden Bullet or Good Roughie tips in this race.
The metrics
CAM is the composite ability rating, the all-in number for how good a horse is. Barello leads it at 87.18, with Venom Wolf second on 83.33 and Ballinderry Sal third on 80.99.
CSW is the class-speed-weight time rating, which prices a horse's best time against the grade and weight it was run under. Barello tops that too on 82.21, ahead of Glounthaune on 80.89 and Venom Wolf on 78.33.
Cruising speed measures the tempo a horse can sustain without extending; Dark Chill ranks first there on 69.6, with Barello second on 65.6. Acceleration measures the change of gear at the business end, and Barello ranks first again on 108.11, with Venom Wolf second on 107.33.
The screenshot line: Barello is ranked first on CAM, first on CSW, first on acceleration and second on cruising speed, from barrier 1, in a race with a 4.11 per cent pressure reading.
What to watch: whether anyone goes after Five Rings early, because if nobody does, the race is won from a position rather than a sprint.
Pre-race analysis, published before the jump. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Every race on the card, rated, with Kingsley's selections and the speed maps behind them. Your first day is free, no card needed.
The interactive version of this preview, with the rated card and Kingsley's selections, is at theking.zone.