Sale Race 7 Preview: Rated Prices And Kingsley's Top Four

A $200,000 mile at Sale with only eight runners, a true rail and a fast tempo reading. The shape is the story here, and Kingsley's rated prices disagree with the market on almost every runner that matters.

The race

Sale Race 7 jumps at 4:30pm AEDT on Sunday, 25 October, with $200,000 on offer, eight acceptors, showers about and the track rated G. The rail is out at True Entire Circuit. The weights are compressed: Freedom Rally (2) tops the handicap at 57.5kg, Ten Commandments (5) is next at 55.5kg, and the remaining six — Aztec Ruler (6), El Rocko (8), Makdane (9), Bon Mistress (10), Haaracaine (11) and All Business (12) — all carry 54kg. There are no official Golden Bullet or Good Roughie tips in this race.

The pace picture

The tempo band is Fast with a pressure reading of 75.69 per cent, which is a genuine hot speed for 1600m rather than a steady, even gallop. El Rocko is the only runner with a ppir of 1 — the predicted in-run position metric where 1 means settling closest to the lead — so he maps to lead from barrier two and should be the one the field chases. Makdane is next closest on ppir 2, then Haaracaine on 3 and Ten Commandments on 4, with Freedom Rally, Aztec Ruler and All Business further adrift. Bon Mistress, on ppir 8 from the inside gate, maps to settle last.

That shape cuts both ways. It gives the closers something to run at, which is exactly the scenario Haaracaine wants after Kingsley's note that he gets back. It also asks a hard question of El Rocko, because leading into a 75.69 per cent pressure read over a mile is honest work for any horse.

Kingsley's selections

His top pick is El Rocko (8), rated $4 against a $3.80 market this morning — the market has him shorter than Kingsley does. The case is the 4kg drop on his Caulfield run, where he was pushed along to hold the fence and never got a breather, plus Mott as a positive in the saddle. The reservation is the predicted speed against him up front.

His second pick is Makdane (9), rated $7.50 against a $5.00 market this morning — a clear gap in Kingsley's favour. He resumes off a Cranbourne trial, has won first-up before, and the weight turnaround is the hook: he laboured under 61.5kg at Caulfield last start and gets 54kg here. Three wins from seven at the mile and a midfield settle round it out.

His third pick is Haaracaine (11), rated $12 against an $8.50 market this morning. He won at Ballarat 16 days ago humping 62kg and drops to 54kg over the same trip, with Egan another plus.

His fourth pick is Ten Commandments (5), rated $2.80 against a $2.70 market this morning — effectively the same read. Room was restricted at Flemington last start and he was already flat by then, so the run is forgivable. He settles handy, the mile suits, and he is top rated on the combined metric, but Kingsley sees no edge at the price.

The metrics

CAM is the composite ability rating, and Ten Commandments ranks first on it at 91.8988, with Bon Mistress second on 91.2956 and Aztec Ruler third. CSW is the class-speed-weight time rating: Freedom Rally ranks first at 95.79, a fraction ahead of Ten Commandments on 95.34, with Aztec Ruler third. Cruising speed measures the tempo a horse can sustain without being asked, and El Rocko tops that at 93.2 from Ten Commandments on 90.7 — consistent with him being the one to dictate. Acceleration measures the turn of foot available late, and Bon Mistress is the clear leader at 100.474, ahead of Ten Commandments on 93.0454. The catch is that the best accelerator in the field maps to be last and has not won in close to two years.

What to watch: whether El Rocko can hold the front at a 75.69 per cent pressure read, because if he cannot, Haaracaine gets the race he needs.

Pre-race analysis, published before the jump. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.

Every race on the card, rated, with Kingsley's selections and the speed maps behind them. Your first day is free, no card needed.

The interactive version of this preview, with the rated card and Kingsley's selections, is at theking.zone.