Flemington Race 8 Preview: Fast Tempo, Rated Prices, Tips
Flemington Race 8 preview: a fast tempo, a $6,000,000 purse and Kingsley's rated prices, with Aeliana his top pick and the Golden Bullet tip.
A twelve-horse field over 2040m at Flemington for $6,000,000, a true rail the entire circuit and a tempo reading that changes who can win it. This is the race of the day, free to view fully rated on theking.zone.
The race
Flemington Race 8 jumps at 5:10pm AEDT on Saturday 24 October, partly cloudy overhead and a Good surface underfoot with the rail out to the true entire circuit. Twelve go around, with most of the field carrying 59kg and the two three-year-olds, Warwoven (11) and Blind Raise (12), getting in at 49.5kg. Aeliana (10) is the only other runner below the top weight at 57kg. Chris Waller, Ciaron Maher and Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott are all represented, and the riding list reads like a Group 1 day: James McDonald, Craig Williams, William Pike, Rachel King, Blake Shinn.
The pace picture
This is rated a Fast tempo with a pressure reading of 64.39 per cent, and that number is the spine of the whole race. Light Infantry Man (2) is the only runner whose predicted position has him on the lead, and at eight years old, drawn 11, he is being asked to roll forward into exactly the sort of tempo that empties a horse out over this trip. Sir Delius (3) and Warwoven settle next closest, with Attrition (4) and Aeliana just behind them in the first half of the field.
The flip side is that the back markers have to be good enough to use the pressure. Ceolwulf (1), Land Legend (7) and Saint George (9) are all mapped to give the leaders a long start, and Saint George settles furthest back of all. Blind Raise is the top-rated cruising speed horse in the race, meaning he can sustain a high speed without stress, but a fast 2040m is a hard place for a three-year-old stretching out 440m in trip.
Kingsley's selections
His top pick is Aeliana (10), rated $3.60 against a $4.80 market this morning, which is the clearest price discrepancy on the card in his favour. She has the best acceleration figure in the field by a wide margin, she settles midfield where the fast tempo does her work for her, she hit the line strongly over this course and distance last start on a heavy track, and she is fitter again fourth-up for Waller with McDonald aboard. She is also the official Golden Bullet in the race, the only official tip here.
His second pick Sir Delius (3) is rated $5.00 against a $4.60 market this morning, so Kingsley has him marginally under the quote. The profile is genuine: seven wins from 15, three of them at this trip, he trains over the track, he is third-up and Williams stays on after sitting handy last time.
His third pick Cosmic Crusader (5) is rated $9.50 against an $8.00 market this morning. Eleven wins from 23, backing up in seven days after keeping on at Caulfield, back to a suitable trip with Pike retained, and one of the sharper finishing kicks from midfield. The weight rise is the one reservation.
His fourth pick Warwoven (11) is rated $7.00 against a $5.50 market this morning. Six wins from nine and 49.5kg on a smart three-year-old is a real weapon, but he has never raced beyond 1600m and this is a serious step up in both trip and class.
The metrics
CAM is the composite ability rating, the all-in measure of how good a horse is. Aeliana tops it. Cosmic Crusader is next on CAM, with Ceolwulf third. CSW rates class, speed and weight through the clock, and there Ceolwulf is the best-rated runner in the race, with Sir Delius second and Cosmic Crusader third. That is a strong number, but Ceolwulf's peak trip is a mile, he is up more than 400m here off a seven-day backup, and he maps a long way back. Kingsley rates him $12.00 against an $8.00 market this morning and is happy to oppose.
Cruising speed measures sustainable speed, and Blind Raise leads that list from Light Infantry Man and Sir Delius. Acceleration measures the ability to change gear late: Aeliana ranks first, Ceolwulf second, Cosmic Crusader third. Land Legend is last on both CAM and acceleration.
Watch the first 600m: if Light Infantry Man is left alone out in front, the whole shape softens and the midfield sprinters lose their edge.
Pre-race analysis, published before the jump. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Every race on the card, rated, with Kingsley's selections and the speed maps behind them. Your first day is free, no card needed.
The interactive version of this preview, with the rated card and Kingsley's selections, is at theking.zone.