Flemington Race 8 Preview: Sir Delius The Golden Bullet
Flemington Race 8 tips and rated prices: a fast tempo sets up the closers. Kingsley's top pick, plus where the market and his ratings disagree.
A $750,000 mile at headquarters with a genuine speed duel in prospect. On a fine day, the true rail out the full circuit, this ten-horse field shapes as a race for the runners who settle off the pace and finish over the top of them.
The race
Flemington Race 8 jumps at 4:20pm AEST over the mile for $750,000. The surface is rated good, the weather is fine, and the rail sits in the true position around the entire circuit. Ten line up, headed on weight by Mr Brightside (1), Half Yours (2) and Light Infantry Man (3) on 59kg, down to Sheza Alibi (12) and Ohope Wins (13) on 56.5kg.
The pace picture
The tempo band reads Fast with a pressure figure of 81.75 per cent, which is a strong number and tells you the leaders will be under real duress. Light Infantry Man maps to lead off barrier one, with Mr Brightside (ppir 2) parked outside him. That is the problem for Mr Brightside: his own comment concedes the speed is on and the tempo over the mile is squarely against him, and he is the one doing the hard work up front. Treasurethe Moment (10) settles closest of the fancied runners in third on the map, while Sir Delius, Sheza Alibi and Autumn Boy (8) sit further back with the pace to run onto. When the front end collapses, this shape suits the closers and hurts anyone stuck grinding.
Kingsley's selections
His top pick is Sir Delius (4), rated $3.40 against a $4.60 market this morning, so Kingsley has him shorter than the release quote. He won his trial first-up and looks the value at the price. He settles midfield with the acceleration to unleash when they wind up, and this tempo sets up for him. He is also the Golden Bullet official tip.
His second pick and the biggest threat is Sheza Alibi (12), rated $1.85 but into a $1.50 market this morning. Kingsley's only knock is the price, which he rates as short enough. She settles midfield and lets down hard when the front end folds.
His third pick is Treasurethe Moment (10), rated $20 against a $13 market this morning. Second-up she reads four wins from five, she is three from four at this track, Damian Lane stays aboard, and she settles handy with a finishing kick.
His fourth pick is Autumn Boy (8), rated $34 against a $21 market this morning. The stable flagged him as the least fit of their five runners last start; fitter now, he gets back and swoops.
The metrics
CAM is Kingsley's composite ability rating, and Sheza Alibi tops it (camRank 1), from Treasurethe Moment (camRank 2) and Sir Delius (camRank 3). CSW, the class-speed-weight time rating, has Sir Delius on top (cswRank 1), from Sheza Alibi (cswRank 2) and Mr Brightside (cswRank 3). Cruising speed, how fast a runner travels in its comfort zone, favours the leaders: Mr Brightside is best (cruisingRank 1), from Treasurethe Moment (cruisingRank 2) and Light Infantry Man (cruisingRank 3).
Acceleration, the sharpness of the turn of foot, is where this race is decided. Sheza Alibi has the best acceleration in the field by a street (accelerationRank 1), with Sir Delius next (accelerationRank 2) and Autumn Boy third (accelerationRank 3). In a fast-run mile, that trio holds the aces late. Light Infantry Man owns the worst acceleration in the field (accelerationRank 10), which flattens his chances despite mapping to lead.
What to watch: whether the leaders survive an 81.75 per cent pressure reading, or hand it to Sir Delius and Sheza Alibi off the speed.
Pre-race analysis, published before the jump. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Every race on the card, rated, with Kingsley's selections and the speed maps behind them. Your first day is free, no card needed.
The interactive version of this preview, with the rated card and Kingsley's selections, is at theking.zone.