"How Do You Beat a Market That's Already Been Knocked Into Shape?"

Kingsley on SEN radio with racing.com. Segment courtesy of SEN x racing.com.

Markets are tighter than they used to be. A fixed odds market goes up at around 130 per cent, and within moments smart punters are into it. They take the overs, they knock it into shape, and by the time most people look at it the market is sitting somewhere between 125 and 130. Come race day, that is the number you have to beat. There are still holes in it. There are just nowhere near as many as there once were, and that changes how you should be betting.

What actually happens when a market opens

The bookmaker puts up a market at about 130 per cent. That is their margin, and it is not small. But it is not evenly spread. Some horses are framed too big and some too short. The people who do the work know which is which, and they are on straight away. Bang. The overs get taken, the price contracts, and the market settles into something much closer to a fair reflection of the race.

You have all seen it happen. You do your form, you land on a horse, you are ready to have a bet, and by the time you get there the price has been chopped in half. That is not bad luck. That is the market working exactly as it now works. Someone else got there first, and the value that existed for a short window is gone.

Why the old approach stops working

I used to back three or four in a race. That made sense when markets were looser and there were more mistakes in them. If the price you are actually getting on race day sits behind a 125 per cent market, spreading yourself across several runners is a good way to hand the margin straight back.

Every extra bet you have in a race dilutes the edge of the one you actually liked. If your best bet is a genuine overlay and the other three are only there because you wanted to be involved, the other three are costing you money. The maths does not care how strong your opinion feels.

Being selective is the edge

So you have to pick the eyes out of it. That means fewer bets, not more. It means being patient, letting races go, and waiting until there is a real overlay in front of you rather than a price that is merely acceptable.

The phrase I keep coming back to is this. Do not have any lazy bets. A lazy bet is one you have because the race is on, because you have done the form and feel you should get something back for the effort, or because you want some interest in the next. None of those are reasons. The only reason to bet is that you think the horse is better than the price on offer, and you are confident enough in that judgement to put money behind it.

Being more selective is not the same as being timid. When you do find one, you back it properly. The rest of the time you sit on your hands.

Next time you go through a card, count how many of your bets you would still have if you had to justify each one on price alone. That number is probably your real betting list.

Every race on the card, rated, with Kingsley's selections and the speed maps behind them. Your first day is free, no card needed.

More from Kingsley

• "Is There Any Value Left in Futures Markets?"
• "Is the Whirlpool Actually Worth Betting Into?"
• Do Trainer and Jockey Tips Help You Find Winners?

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