How Bookmakers Hold a Price Down Before a Race

Recorded August 2025 for The Grind Ep3: Mastering Betfair SP, Lays & Market Angles – A Professional Approach. Any figures mentioned are from that time.

When you see every bookmaker in the country betting the same price about a horse, that is usually not a coincidence. They are holding it there. If they are heavily exposed on that runner, through multis or straight bets, they will get on the exchange themselves and take money to keep the price from drifting. Once you understand that, you can sit above the price they are defending and pick up small amounts on the exchange before the big money arrives.

What holding a price down looks like

Take the last race at Flemington. Race nine, number one, Stylish, the favourite, trading around $3.85 to back and $4.30 to lay. Every bookie is at $4. What some of them do is come on to the exchange and take $4.20, $4.10, $4.30, so the price does not get away from them. They are laying that horse in multis or straight out, and in the case of the big corporates they might be holding tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands. Keeping the price down is how they manage that exposure.

I price Stylish at $4.60. At the $4 mark, that is not a great lay for me, so I leave it alone. But the mechanic is the same regardless of my own assessment. If they are working to keep a price where it is, there is money available on the exchange at or just above that price.

How I use it

If it were a horse I did want to lay, I would go into Betfair and put up around $3.95 to $4.03. I would probably just put it in at $4, for small money. That is the key part. This is small money, not a main bet. You put a hundred dollars in at $4 and quite often you will pick up fifties, hundreds, two hundreds, sometimes five hundreds, because the bookies are actively trying to hold that price down and they are taking what is offered.

You see it a lot in the late races in Perth when Willie Pike is riding. They will work hard to keep those prices from blowing out. It is just another little hack to get set at a shorter price before the big money comes through and the market moves for good.

When a held price has bottomed out

The second part of this is reading what happens when the pressure stops working. Stylish firmed from five into $4.40 and then into $4. Now everyone is just leaving it at $4. Nothing is moving. When a horse has been firming and then stops, despite the market clearly trying to get it in, chances are it has hit rock bottom. That is the point where I would be interested in laying it, betting that it starts longer than the price it is sitting at.

It does not always come off. Stylish started about $4 and got the cash, so I was lucky I did not lay it at all and saved my money there. The read was reasonable, the result went the other way.

Watch the boards before a race and note when every bookmaker lands on the same number and stays there. Ask yourself whether that price is being held, and whether it has stopped moving. Then decide if you want to sit above it on the exchange for small money, or leave it alone.

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More from Kingsley

• "What Should I Do If I Miss the Price?"
• How I Read Market Moves and Drifts Before a Group One
• "How Do You Read A Bookmaker's Price Moves?"

From the full video: The Grind Ep3: Mastering Betfair SP, Lays & Market Angles – A Professional Approach

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