📉 Why Favourites Fail & What the Market is Really Telling You | The Grind Ep 9

📉 Why Favourites Fail & What the Market is Really Telling You | The Grind Ep 9
👉 Watch The Grind Ep 9 now

After a week off recovering from a 96km mental grind (yes, really), The Grind is back—and this episode goes deep into one of the most common questions I get:

"How do you know when a favourite is a false favourite?"

This weekend, we didn’t just see one favourite get rolled—we saw eight of them go under in Group races. Group 1s, 2s and 3s. Odds-on pops. Big names. Gone.

And no, it’s not just “the spring is wild.”

It’s repeatable. It’s predictable. And it’s a huge opportunity if you know what to look for.

🧠 The Setup Trap (And Why the Market Falls For It)

In Ep 9, I unpack why second-up horses off flattered first-up runs often go up under odds—and how smart punters can spot the trap before the drift.

We break down several case studies including:

  • Lady Shannonoa
  • Rise of Dawn
  • Tempted
  • Ezra
  • Via Custina

I’m not saying sack these horses. I’m saying understand the setup. That’s the difference between a bad bet and a future winner.

🔍 Reverse Engineering a Market Move

We also dig into two of Saturday’s biggest market moves:

  1. Alabama State (first-up gelding off strong trials, CAM + Race Strength edge)
  2. Rise of Dawn (second-up, clear class edge, mapped to lead off slow tempo)

Neither won.

But that's not the point.

The point is why the money came—and how you can spot those same triggers before the market reacts.

đź“Š A Look Back at September

I also run through how TKZ official tips performed last month:

  • +7.4% PoT overall
  • Lays running at -9% (great reference point)
  • Saturdays showing 12% edge

That’s the beauty of a system—you can see what’s working, and you can test where the edge is coming from.

🧰 New Feature Sneak Peek

Quick one—there’s now a backtesting feature live on the TKZ site for same-day races. You can reverse engineer market moves, firmers, and metrics on demand. Full historical range is coming soon.

We built it because you asked for it.

👀 And One More Thing…

Tomorrow, I’m dropping something very special for TKZ members.

It’ll be live for 24 hours only, and I promise—it’s worth checking your inbox.

In the meantime, if you're serious about understanding how the market really works, this episode is one of the most important I’ve done.

👉 Watch The Grind Ep 9 now

Stay in the game,
Kingsley