What Happens If You Back Every Horse in Every Race

Recorded June 2025 for 🔥 10.8% ROI in 2 Weeks! Breaking Down The King Zone Official Tips. Any figures mentioned are from that time.

If you backed every single horse in every race, you would not break even. You would lose. I track the average price from the corporate bookmakers after a meeting's form is released, at around 10:30am, and if you backed every runner at that average price you would be losing 5.3% on turnover. Nobody is going to back every horse. That is not the point. The point is that 5.3% is the margin sitting against you before you have made a single decision, and it is the number any set of selections has to beat.

What the 5.3% actually tells you

Most punters never put a figure on the house edge they are up against. They know it exists, they just treat it as background noise. Putting a number on it changes how you read your own results. If a set of tips is losing two or three percent on turnover, that is not a disaster, it is better than random. If it is losing eight or ten percent, you are doing worse than throwing darts at the field. The 5.3% is the line in the sand. Everything you do should be measured against it, not against zero.

That also means the benchmark moves with the market you are betting into. I measure at the average top price from the corporates after the form comes out. Bet into a weaker market and the number working against you gets bigger. Bet later, or into a market that has firmed, and it changes again. The discipline is knowing which number you are actually fighting.

Turn it around and look at the lays

The same maths works the other way. If you took the runners I have marked as lays and backed them at the same metric, the average top price at around 10:30am, you would be losing 20.2% on turnover. That is a long way past the 5.3% baseline. There have been 662 lays for 80 winners, a strike rate of 12%.

We do not back the lays. We lay them. But flip that 20.2% around and you can see why the number matters. If you are a bookmaker, or you are trading, that is exactly the kind of figure you want to understand. The people framing markets are looking for runners that are overbet relative to their real chance. A group of horses that loses over twenty percent when backed is the other side of a bookmaker's business.

Where the top selections sit

On the back side, the top selection in each race sits at 11.2% profit on turnover, from 886 bets across 886 races, with 260 winners and a strike rate of 29%. Measured against a baseline of minus 5.3%, that gap is the whole story. It is not about the raw profit figure on its own. It is about how far you are away from what the market hands you by default.

It is not all rainbows and butterflies either, and there are plenty of parts of the record that are worth picking apart.

So take your own betting and work out the number. Compare it to the 5.3% rather than to zero, and you will find out very quickly whether your selections are doing any real work.

Every race on the card, rated, with Kingsley's selections and the speed maps behind them. Your first day is free, no card needed.

More from Kingsley

• Why I Do Not Take Short Odds in Small Fields
• How I Read Market Moves and Drifts Before a Group One
• "How Do You Read A Bookmaker's Price Moves?"

From the full video: 🔥 10.8% ROI in 2 Weeks! Breaking Down The King Zone Official Tips

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