The World Pool, Private Eye, and Why Price Is Everything

$2 million flooded the World Pool in the final 10 seconds before the Everest jumped.

Everyone was talking about overs. Big prices. Value everywhere.

I said before the race: the pros won't let it happen. They never do.

What Actually Happened

When the barriers opened: $4 million in the pool.
At jump time: $6 million.

That's an extra third of the pool created by late money. Pro money. Smart money that knows exactly when to strike.

I break down the entire Everest World Pool in Episode 12 of The Grind. But here's the reality:

Ka Ying Rising was $1.30, kicked out to $1.45. Betfair $1.45. No massive overs.
Briasa $13 into $15 Betfair. No overs.

War Machine had some - $15 early, paid $14 on the pool, $13 Betfair.

The market self-corrects. Always has. Always will.

The Real Lesson: Private Eye and the 50% Difference

This is what matters.

Private Eye opened $2.40 on the TAB. Drifted to $3.40. I took $3.30-$3.40.

The horse then firmed. $3.00. $2.80. Jump: $2.20 across the board.

Same horse. Same race. 50% more money if you took $3.30 instead of $2.20.

Lost the race. Don't care. The bet was right because the price was right.

The Data That Proves It

Over 4+ months tracking every bet:

• Official tips at high price: +4% ROI
• Official tips at final price: -10.5% ROI

That's a 15% difference between taking the right price and the wrong price.

"Over time, if you're constantly taking the wrong price, it will catch up with you. It doesn't matter how good your form is."

Price selection is AS IMPORTANT as horse selection. Not more important. Equally important.

You need both.

Why Bookies Love Multis (And You Shouldn't Take Them)

I go through this in detail in the episode, but here's the short version:

Problem 1: Staking
Three-leg multi at $8 for $100. You're essentially betting:

• Race 1: $100
• Race 2: $200
• Race 3: $400

Two legs get up, one loses? You're $100 behind on the multi.

Same three bets singles to win $200? You're $100 in front (two winners at $100 each, one loser at $100).

Problem 2: Price
You have to take it all in one place. You don't get the best price on each leg.

Private Eye $2.10 vs Ladbrokes $3.10. Linebacker $3.40 vs Ladbrokes $3.40. Half Yours $3.00 vs Bet365.

If you're locked into a multi with one bookie, you're leaving money on the table every time.

Problem 3: Timing
Multis go on all at once. I don't bet that way. I shop around. I wait for stabilization. I look for the horse to firm a little bit before jumping in.

The only time I'd consider a multi: if I see an incorrect price and I'm limited on the single. Might multi it into something shorter to get more on. But that's a pro move with big limits. Not everyday punting.

The Caulfield Cup Run You Need to Remember

Half Yours won. Great. We had it. Took $3, got $2.50-$2.60.

But the run of the race?

River of Stars at 100/1.

Adelaide River led, ran 12th. Banker's Choice 2nd, ran 16th. Plymouth 3rd, ran 15th. Rivalare 4th, ran 17th.

River of Stars was mid-pack. Finished 2nd. Beat every single one of those horses that sat closer.

Why? The race wasn't run to suit horses on pace. Fast tempo. Adelaide River went hell for leather. Burned out.

River of Stars had the cruising to be there, but got the perfect run from back in the pack off the hot tempo.

This is race reading. This is what matters for Melbourne Cup week. Not just who won - but why they won, and who ran better than it looked.

I go through Observer (run of the race at Randwick), the expected ratings for Rise at Dawn, and the small-field leader advantage in the full episode.

Live Analysis: What's Actually Working

In the episode, I run live analysis on the tool. No prep. Just testing factors in real-time to show you the process.

Class Edge + Race Strength 90+:
250 horses, 7% profit at high price.

Ideal Distance + Race Pressure + CSW Rank 1:
242 bets, 11-12% profit.

Overlays (Good Value in Early Betting):
4,500 bets, 8.6% profit.

These aren't tips. These are systems within the system that you build yourself.

The analysis tool is there for you to test everything. Match up your own factors. Find your own edges.

Melbourne Cup Preview: Monday

Sir Delius scratched. Market wide open.

I'm excited. I'm looking forward to having a crack. And I'm looking at a few runs out of the Caulfield Cup that have me very interested at double-figure odds.

Episode 3 of the Melbourne Cup Challenge drops Monday. Full preview. Full analysis.

But Episode 12 sets you up. The race shape. The runs to follow. The horses to watch.

This Friday: Free Racing

Moonee Valley and Randwick Friday are completely free this week on The King Zone.

Normally members only. This week, everyone gets access.

Check out the metrics. The ratings. The comments. The bullet prices. See how it all works.

Whether you're betting or not - get familiar with the tool. See what matches with your own approach.

The hard work never stops.

Kingsley

P.S. - If there's anything you want me to test in the analysis tool or any race you want me to reverse engineer, drop it in the comments on YouTube or email the team. The more we share information, the better punters we become.