The Everest 2025: I've Done The Work - Here's What You Need To Know

The biggest sprint race in the world is Saturday. $20 million. Twelve slot holders. One race. I've spent 48 hours on this and I've found the value.

Look, The Everest is one of those races where everyone has an opinion. Every punter in Australia will have a bet. The question is: are you going in prepared, or are you going in blind?

I'm not going in blind.

The Question I Had To Answer

Ka Ying Rising. The Hong Kong superstar. Everyone's talking about him. $1.80 into short odds already.

But I had one big question: Can he handle the pace?

This isn't going to be a soft lead scenario. Overpass from barrier nine. Mazu from barrier two. These are genuine leaders. This is going to be fast. Very fast.

So I went back and watched every Ka Ying Rising race in Hong Kong. I pulled his ratings. I found races with similar early tempo. I needed to see if he could handle what's coming Saturday.

What I found... you'll have to watch the video. But I'll tell you this: I got my answer.

The Barrier Draw Changed Everything

Barrier draws matter. In The Everest, they matter even more.

Some horses got the perfect draw for their racing pattern. They're in the box seat. The map sets up perfectly.

Other horses? The barrier draw killed them. Doesn't matter how good they are - they're either going to use too much petrol getting to where they need to be, or they're going back so far they can't win.

I've gone through every runner. Mapped out where they'll settle. Tested their ratings against the predicted tempo.

There are horses everyone's backing that I want nothing to do with. The setup's wrong. The ratings don't stack up against this pressure.

Where The Value Is

Here's the thing about The Everest: the market gets swept up in the hype.

Favorites get over-bet because they're favorites. Horses get backed because they won last start, not because the setup suits this race.

I've found horses drifting in the market that the data says should be shorter. Horses with the ratings, the pace profile, the barrier, the jockey to get the job done.

But I'm not giving them away here. You need to watch the video.

What I will say: I'm waiting for my price. I know what I want. I know what they're worth. And I'm prepared to wait until Saturday morning if I have to.

Discipline beats impulse. Every time.

The Process

This is how I approached it:

Step 1: Studied Ka Ying Rising's Hong Kong form in detail - not just the replays, the actual ratings in high-pressure scenarios

Step 2: Ran every Australian horse's peak rating against fast tempo scenarios - who can handle this pressure?

Step 3: Mapped the race based on barriers and racing patterns - who's advantaged, who's cooked?

Step 4: Identified where the market's got it wrong - who's over-bet, who's under-bet?

Step 5: Set my target prices and waited

I'm on Step 5 now. The analysis is done. Now it's execution.

What You'll Get In The Video

I've put together a full Everest preview breaking down everything:

• Ka Ying Rising's Hong Kong ratings and whether he can handle Saturday's pace

• Every runner's adjusted rating for this race scenario

• The barrier draw analysis - who's advantaged, who's destroyed

• The full race map - who leads, who stalks, where the pressure comes from

• My value plays and the exact prices I'm targeting

• The favorites I'm completely against and why

This isn't tips. This is process. This is showing you how I think about a race like this.

The findings might surprise you. They surprised me.

Prices Are Moving

Ka Ying Rising opened $1.80 at Ladbrokes. Got smashed. Now he's short odds everywhere.

Other horses are firming as the smart money comes. Some are drifting as punters jump off.

This is time-sensitive. The prices I'm targeting might not be there by Saturday morning. The value window closes fast in races like this.

If you're betting The Everest - and let's be honest, you are - you need to see this analysis before you place a bet.

I've done the work. The data's there. The value's there.

Now you just need to watch it.

The Everest. Saturday. $20 million.

Let's find some value.

Kingsley