The Cox Plate Conundrum: When There's No Pace, What's the Play?

Here's the thing - the Cox Plate discussion in this weeks Saturday Set perfectly illustrated one of the hardest problems in professional punting: the no-pace scenario.

The Problem with No Pace

When Globe scratched this morning, it took out the only guaranteed leader. Now we've got a race where everyone's looking at the map saying "no pace, slow tempo" - but that's not quite right. Let me explain the difference.

There's a difference between:

• A slow pace (horses ARE leading, they're just going slow)
• No pace (no clear leader, horses ridden upside down)

The second one? That's what makes this Cox Plate so dangerous from a form perspective.

Why No-Pace Races Are Brutal

In my framework, I talk about race pressure and cruising metrics. These work brilliantly in normal races because you can predict who leads, who stalks, who gets back. The market understands tempo. Form lines make sense.

But in no-pace races? Horses get ridden completely differently. Via Systina is the perfect example - she's been compromised in BOTH her runs this prep because of muddly, messy races with no tempo. Treasure the Moment? Same story. Small fields, no pace, horses stuck behind Globe or Pride of Jenni crawling in front.

The form becomes unreliable because horses weren't ridden to their optimal patterns.

My Nostradamus Prediction

Here's where it gets interesting. The boys asked what I thought would happen, and I said this: I don't think it'll be a slow pace.

Why? Two horses that could completely change the complexion:

1. Light Infantry Man ($51) - Went over to WA, won the Northerly by going forward. Change of tactics, sat second, got the job done. If you own this horse, you're telling the jockey "just go to the front and try to steal it."
2. Attrition ($34) - Ran second to Linderman after going forward. Same story - ran better when he led or sat second.

If BOTH those horses go forward early? We could see a genuine tempo. And if I'm an owner of either horse at those prices in a Cox Plate with "no pace," I'm absolutely sending them forward and hoping to nick it.

Worth a spec at big odds? Maybe. That's the kind of scenario thinking that can find value in weird markets.

Via Systina vs. Antino: The $2.15 vs. $4.00 Question

The market has Via Systina at $2.15 and Antino at $4.00. That spread tells you everything about reputation vs. recent form.

Via Systina's 116 rating from last year's Cox Plate? The bookies and the market remember it. That's what commands that price. But here's what the form actually shows:

In the Turnbull:

• Antino had a much harder run (three wide no cover)
• Antino put huge pace into the race
• Antino still beat Via Systina home

Yet Via's $2.15 and Antino's $4.00. That's respect for past performance, not current form.

Biz nailed it on the show - if you're breaking down that Turnbull, Antino's run was superior. Via had everything go her way and still couldn't let down when James McDonald (one of the best in the game) gave her a 10/10 ride.

Why I'm Not Betting

This is where the framework kicks in: the two-step process.

Step 1: Do the factors line up?
Step 2: Do I like the price?

You need BOTH. If either fails, I don't bet.

In this race, the factors don't line up clearly enough. Too many variables:

• Unknown pace scenario
• Horses potentially ridden completely differently
• Small field dynamics
• Via Systina's form compromised by messy races
• Treasure the Moment's last two runs below her best

When the setup is this murky, I don't force it. That's the discipline.

If I HAD to Pick...

If a gun was to my head? Via Systina or Antino. One of those two wins. And the only way I see Treasure the Moment winning is if she goes to the front (barrier 1, why wouldn't you?) and just dictates from the front. She's a better horse than those roughies who might try to lead.

But Treasure's last two runs? She's not the same horse she was after that first-up win. The second-up pattern strikes again - had a flattered first-up run, market overlaid her, got beaten in messy circumstances. Classic spring carnival.

The Second-Up Trap (Again)

This connects to something I talk about a lot in the framework: the second-up trap after flattered first-up runs.

We saw it all through Spring Carnival - 8 Group race favorites beaten in two days, nearly all of them second-up horses coming off runs where everything went their way first-up. The market overreacts, overlays them, then they get beaten because:

1. Wrong setup second-up
2. Not set for THIS race (set for bigger target later)
3. Messy race scenarios with no tempo

Via Systina fits this pattern - compromised in two straight runs now. The question is: is the Cox Plate her grand final, or is she still building?

I think she'll improve. I think this IS her grand final. But I'm not betting it because the setup is too unclear.

The Entertainment Value

One thing I loved about being on the show was the trip down memory lane with So You Think. What a champion. Two Cox Plates, dominant both times. Then the boys brought up the Ascot disaster with the syndicate bet that went wrong.

Look, those are the days you remember - the good ones AND the bad ones. We don't hide from the losses. Transparency matters. The bad days teach you just as much as the good days, if you're willing to face the mirror.

$200,000 on So You Think at Ascot, thinking it was free money for the trip. Then Two Zone rolls us. Some boys never recovered from that day.

That's the reality of professional punting at scale. You can do everything right for years, then one bad day - if you lose control - can knock it all off. That's why I talk about the STOP protocol in the framework. When things go sideways, STOP. Walk away. Clear your head. This is a long game.

What Winx Taught Us

The Mooney Valley content on Winx's four Cox Plates? Incredible. Here's what stood out to me:

The third Cox Plate was the most revealing. The first two, she surged away at the 400m mark like a freak. The third? Humidor stuck with her like glue. She had to dig deep, find that last bit, and grind it out.

Chris Waller said it perfectly: "It's a reminder not to take things too cheaply and how hard it is to win races."

Even for the best horse in the world, racing at her absolute peak, it was HARD. She was vulnerable for a moment. But champions find a way.

That's the lesson: never assume anything is easy. Even when you have the best horse, the best jockey, everything going your way - you still have to execute.

The Weekend Ahead

Cox Plate Day is one of the great days of racing. The atmosphere, the quality, the history. Even when I'm not betting the main event, I'm still working through every race, looking for edges where I can find them.

The boys and I went through heaps of races on the show - the Vase, the Rubiton, the Schillaci. Every race has its own puzzle. Every race requires the same process:

1. Do the factors line up?
2. Do I like the price?
3. If both yes → bet
4. If either no → move on

No emotional attachment. No forcing bets because it's Cox Plate Day and "you have to have something on the big one." That's how recreational punters think. That's not how you win long-term.

The Hard Work Never Stops

Had a winning week leading into Saturday. Feeling good. Ready to rip into the bookies. But here's the thing - I'll be doing the exact same work whether I'm winning or losing.

Review every bet. Check the factors. Look at the prices. Shop around for the best odds. Stick to the process.

That's what the framework teaches: Process over results. The work matters more than any single outcome.

Even if Via Systina wins at $2.15 and I'm sitting out? That's fine. I made the decision based on my process, not on fear of missing out. You can't win them all. You can only make good decisions with the information you have.

The Bottom Line

The Cox Plate is a fascinating race this year BECAUSE it's so hard to solve. No clear pace scenario. Top horses coming off compromised runs. Small field dynamics. Unknown tactics.

In that situation, the smart play might be no play at all.

But if you're betting it? Think about:

• What if Light Infantry Man or Attrition go forward and create tempo?
• Is Via Systina really back to her best, or still building?
• Can Antino's superior recent form overcome Via's reputation?
• Does Treasure the Moment need to lead to win?

Ask better questions. Think deeper. Don't just back the favorite because everyone expects it to win.

That's how you find edges in 2025.

Face the mirror. Do the work. Trust your process.

The hard work never stops.

Kingsley Bartholomew
The King Zone // Professional Punter

Listen to the full episode of The Saturday Set EP 113 on Wolfden's channel for the complete Cox Plate Day preview and all the race discussions.