Saturday Set: Everest and Caulfield Cup Day - The Biggest Punting Day of the Year

It's the biggest day on the Australian racing calendar. Caulfield Cup. The Everest. Five Group Ones. The stakes are massive, the markets are sharp, and the boys at Wolfden got me in to break it all down.

Let's get straight into it.

The Official Tips - Three Plays for the Big Day

Race 9 Caulfield - Half Yours in the Caulfield Cup ($2.90)

This is my best bet of the day. Not even close.

The Turnbull was one of the best Caulfield Cup trials I've seen in years. Half Yours was five lengths further back at the 600 than the leaders, grinded away the entire straight, and nearly got past Via Sistina in fourth. Even more merit when you consider they went quite slow in front and got stacked up by Antino mid-race.

Here's the key: Half Yours carried 56kg in the Turnbull. Drops to 52.5kg in the Cup. That's huge.

The form lines are clear:

• The Turnbull form (strongest)
• The Metropolitan form (inferior in my view - when's the last Met winner that came down and featured in Melbourne?)
• The overseas form (mixed bag)

I'm not chasing the European horses except maybe the Japanese imports at big odds if you're having a throw. Maidan seems short to me. The Met horses like Royal Supremacy, Birdman, and Vorbund are all right but not compelling at their prices.

Half Yours drawn barrier two, Jamie Kah will sit sixth, seventh, eighth midfield. Only time over 2400m was the Caloundra Cup - won. The race isn't as deep as the horse count suggests.

$2.90 is a good price. First official Saturday Set tip sorted.

Race 6 Caulfield - Zealously ($3.40+)

Best bet of the day for mine.

1000 meters, coming off a benchmark 100 win first-up that was brilliant. Now drops to Caulfield. Robbie Dolan's just going to go straight to the front. There's a lot of 1100-1200m horses in this race - I don't think they'll get near him.

Anything over $2.80 is great value. It'll start short and keep firming.

Race 6 Randwick - Generosity ($2.60+)

Horse that Fizz tipped as well. First-up very unlucky in The Shorts, could have finished much closer. Second-up ran a great race behind Brissot and Jolly Star - both Everest horses. There's no Everest horses in this race.

Gets Jac McDonald on, 1200m suits, mid-prep third-up and ready to hit the line. Anything over $2.60 I think is great odds. Generosity is going to be very hard to beat.

The Everest - King Rising and the Travel Question

Look, we had Stu Feny in the studio - King Rising's spiritual owner who's been on at $15, $11, $3.75, $3.50. Living the dream. But I'll be straight with you about where I'm at on this race.

The Ratings Tell a Clear Story:

King Rising's peak rating is 116. That's elite. That's Black Caviar territory. The ratings consistently are 107, 108, 109, 110. Jolly Star's peak is 105. Jimmy Star's peak is 105. Then we're down to 102s after that.

If this race was in Hong Kong, King Rising is $1.20, maybe $1.30-$1.40.

The Problem: The Only Thing That Can Beat King Rising is King Rising

The travel factor is real. That's what makes $1.75 not value for me. Zac's interview after the trial was refreshing - he came out and said if he runs like that, he won't win. That's honest. That's also concerning.

How he settles on race day matters. They're doing work on Saturday morning to settle him down. The mounting yard behavior is a factor.

The Map:

I think Mazu leads from barrier two. Overpass crosses from nine, probably sits outside Mazu. King Rising from barrier seven follows Overpass across - sits either outside lead or 1-1. Barrier seven is perfect for him.

They're going to go above average tempo. So the question becomes: off a fast tempo, who's got the sprint to get over King Rising if he's right?

The Three Hopes:

1. Jimmy Star - Best sprinter off fast tempos in my testing. But barrier 11 is a problem. Ethan Brown's going to have to go back to last. Don't know if he's got that good a sprint from there.
2. Jolly Star - James McDonald, barrier five. If he can sit a bit closer, he does have the sprint off fast tempos.
3. Lady Shannonoa - Lost to Manadu in the Manikato. Bit of a victim of the Valley and a victim of being the race before Chris Waller's main target. She's been set for this race. She's a very good horse and it wouldn't surprise me to see her run much better.

My Play:

I can't back King Rising at $1.75 because of the trial and the travel factor. He can beat himself. But if he runs to his best, he wins easily.

I'll be betting Jolly Star and Lady Shannonoa, but I wouldn't be rushing in. If King Rising wins, congratulations Stu - I think he's got a massive chance. If I was pricing it, I'd have him around $1.20-$1.50. The market's probably right at $1.75 when you factor in travel risk.

The Second-Up Pattern - Why 8 of 9 Group Favorites Got Beaten

This came up in the King Charles discussion but it's worth highlighting because it's been the pattern all Spring Carnival:

The Setup:

• Horses that are second-up coming off flattered first-up runs
• Market overreacts to impressive first-up wins
• Wrong setup second-up
• They get beaten

Examples from Spring Carnival: Vinrock, Ezra, Treasure the Moment, Lady Shannonoa (flashing light at 1000m first-up, then barrier 10 Moonee Valley second-up), O2 Good, Zua Kar, Tempted, Rise at Dawn - all beaten as favorites.

Only Manaal won, and she was set for the race.

The Critical Point: DO NOT SACK THESE HORSES

They're still very good horses. High ratings. They got beaten for a REASON - setup, not ability. The value is third-up or when the conditions are right.

What are their grand finals? Lady Shannonoa - probably the Everest. She'll be peaked for that. These horses "run in, they'll run out" - they're not Black Caviar or Winx.

The Bookie Cycle:

Bookies get results early carnival with these surprise defeats. Then 2-3 weeks later, favorites start winning again when horses hit their grand finals - the races they're actually set for. Form finds itself. Horses reach right distances. Setup comes together.

King Charles III Stakes - The Most Intriguing Race

Fan Girl clear on my numbers after that peak rating last start over Linderman. But I've got queries:

1. Barrier 11 - not ideal
2. Fast pace with Pride of Jenny in the race - Fan Girl has struggled to sprint off fast early tempos in her past runs

My Play: Lake Forest ($7+)

Came over from the UK, won the Doomben 10,000 last year coming up the fence at 100 miles an hour. Beat quality - Jolly Star and Stefi Magnetica were in that race.

Last start ran second in a Group One at York, didn't get clear running, flashed down the outside. Real bulldog of a horse.

I'm against Mr. Bright Side from barrier 12. I'm against Chill Wolf even though the setup suits - his form's not good enough (sixth in Epsom vs won an Epsom last year).

Pride of Jenny can definitely win this - she'll go straight to the front and she's going as good as ever. Lake Forest is where I'm landing.

Fizz's Saturday Set

Fizz went with:

• Half Yours (Caulfield Cup)
• Magnus Choice (Ascot Race 4 - first-up)
• Trilord Shiva (Ascot Race 7 - $5, should lead)
• Generosity (Randwick Race 6)
• Attentress (Caulfield Race 4 - second-up)
• Find Drone (Eagle Farm Race 5 - $6, front runner)
• Barbar Spur (Eagle Farm Race 6 - early stages, good trial)

Six angry tips. He needs three winners. Fair play.

The Mates Mode Play

We're doing another Mates Mode pot at Ladbrokes. Use code UPTHE25 to get involved.

The key to these pots working: betting early and securing the good odds. That 15% difference between high price and final price? That's the difference between winning and losing. When we're betting early with 30-40 grand to play with in the pot, those small edges compound.

Saturday Sessions Are Back

Three weeks straight:

• This Saturday (Everest/Caulfield Cup)
• Cox Plate Day
• Derby Day

Then we put it away. Should be good viewing. Fitzpatrick will be cranky by the end but that's half the entertainment.

The Bottom Line

Half Yours, Zealously, Generosity - those are my three official plays. I'm very confident at least two of them win.

King Rising probably wins The Everest if he's right, but I can't take $1.75 with the travel question marks. The horses to beat him are Jolly Star, Jimmy Star (if he can overcome the barrier), and Lady Shannonoa.

The second-up pattern is real - don't sack horses that failed second-up after good first-up runs. They're being set for their grand finals.

And remember: Price is as important as selection. Shop around. Get the best odds. That's the difference between winning and losing.

Let's have a day.

- Kingsley