Horsham Race 6 Preview: Rated Prices, Tips And Pace Read

Twelve go around at Horsham for $100,000 in fine conditions, and the shape of this 1400m contest is the whole story: a fast tempo band, a pressure reading of 68.69%, and a rated favourite the market has shorter than Kingsley does.

The race

Horsham Race 6 jumps at 4:30pm AEDT on a true rail the entire circuit, with the weather fine. Weights range from Figlio D'argento's 60kg down to 55.5kg for Spex and Cat Noir, and the field splits cleanly into horses that want to be near the speed and horses that will need the tempo to collapse. There are no official Golden Bullet or Good Roughie tips attached to this race, so the analysis stands on the ratings and the pace map.

The pace picture

The tempo band reads Fast with pressure at 68.69%, which is the single most important number on the page. Figlio D'argento (1) carries a ppir of 1 — the lowest predicted running position in the race, meaning he settles closest to the lead — but Kingsley's note on him is blunt: he was far too keen behind the leaders last time, had nothing left from the 400m and wants further than this. Endless Summer (2) is next closest with a ppir of 2 from barrier 3, and Naraghi (10) sits third on ppir from the inside gate despite having led and surrendered quickly last start.

Behind them, the race is loaded with horses asking for the front end to break. Royal Infantry (4) has the highest ppir in the field at 12, with Mr Independent (3) at 11 and Col Klink (6) at 10. That is where the market story lives: Col Klink is rated $4.40 against a $3.90 market this morning, and Kingsley is happy to take him on — up in trip again, his win came on a heavy track, and he gives this field a long start.

Kingsley's selections

His top pick is Spex (13), rated $6 against a $6.50 market this morning. The case is simple: Kingsley cannot see anything here crossing her early, she bolted in by five lengths at Tatura humping 62.5kg and drops 7kg today, and at five starts there is still improvement in front of her. He considers $6.50 just short enough to be worth taking.

His second pick Endless Summer (2) is rated $8 against a $7.00 market, so this one is the other way round — Kingsley has him a shade longer than the market. The form reads well regardless: he hit the line hard at Bendigo for a length defeat after sitting outside the leader, he is third run into the prep, and barrier 3 has him handy.

His third pick Cat Noir (12) is the big price disagreement of the race, rated $26 against a $14.00 market. She is resuming and will be giving them a start, but if the front end gets into a genuine scrap she is the one charging home. His fourth pick Final Countdown (9) is rated $12 against a $10.00 market — held up and tightened before bursting clear at Murray Bridge over this precise trip, better than the margin suggests, now up in the weights and drawn out in 11, but she trains on this course.

The metrics

CAM is the composite ability rating, and Cat Noir tops the field on it at 89.4328, with Colour Our World (8) ranked second at 85.56. CSW rates class, speed and weight against the clock: Colour Our World is ranked first at 89.72 and Mr Independent second at 88.70 — though both carry serious queries, Colour Our World resuming off 147 days and back sharply in trip, Mr Independent off 211 days and down from 2000m.

Cruising speed measures the tempo a horse can sustain without stress, and Spex is ranked first at 87, ahead of Endless Summer at 85.5 — the two Kingsley has on top. Acceleration measures raw finishing burst, and Cat Noir's 104.366 is ranked first in this field, with Colour Our World second at 94.62 and Col Klink third at 90.5806.

Watch the first 400m: if Spex gets the front without an argument, the 68.69% pressure reading becomes someone else's problem.

Pre-race analysis, published before the jump. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.

Every race on the card, rated, with Kingsley's selections and the speed maps behind them. Your first day is free, no card needed.

The interactive version of this preview, with the rated card and Kingsley's selections, is at theking.zone.