Caulfield Race 8 Preview: Rated Prices, Tips And Pace Map
Caulfield Race 8 preview: Kingsley's top four with rated prices against the market, the pace map, and the CAM, CSW, cruising and acceleration standouts.
A $3,000,000 race at Caulfield with eleven runners, every one of them carrying 57kg, and a form reference point that keeps repeating: two of the market leaders are stepping up to 1600m for the first time. This is the Race Of The Day, free to view fully rated on theking.zone.
The race
Caulfield Race 8 jumps at 4:30pm AEDT on Saturday, 10 October, with partly cloudy skies, a good surface and the rail out at the true entire circuit. Eleven go around at level weights, which strips the puzzle back to ability, trip and where they sit. Chris Waller holds four of the eleven, Ciaron Maher three, and the senior riding list is deep — James McDonald, Craig Williams, Rachel King, Mark Zahra, Blake Shinn and Ben Melham are all engaged.
The pace picture
The tempo band reads Average with a pressure figure of 31.75 per cent, which is a soft number for a race of this quality. In other words, nobody is expected to be dragged out of their comfort zone early, and the horses who settle close will not be picked off by default.
That matters most at the two ends of the grid. Warwoven (2) has a ppir of 1 and maps to lead from barrier 6. Blind Raise (5) is next closest on ppir 2 out of barrier 2, so the two short-priced runners are set to control proceedings from the front rank. Central Europe (7) is fourth on ppir, again handy. Against them, Tron Bolt (4) has drawn the outside gate in an eleven-horse field and sits seventh on ppir, while Call Me Coach (11) is eighth and Somethings Burnin' (8) tenth. Wolf Gap (9) is the back marker on ppir 11. With a modest tempo reading, the horses coming from the rear need both luck and a genuine turn of foot.
Kingsley's four
His top pick is Warwoven (2), rated $2.40 against a $2.30 market this morning — the rating and the market are effectively shaking hands, which is Kingsley's point. Five wins from eight, a three-length win at Rosehill last start, barrier 6, the lead on the pace map and the class to handle the mile first time. Top rated, but at those odds he sees nothing to work with.
His second pick Blind Raise (5) is rated $3.80 against a $3.40 market this morning. Four wins from five, a winner here three weeks ago after doing the work from the front, and he has barrier 2 this time instead of covering ground. The unknown is the same one as the favourite's: he has not raced at 1600m before.
His third pick Tron Bolt (4) is rated $9.50 against an $8.00 market this morning. The profile is strong and the draw is the problem: he will be a long way back from gate 11 and needs a clear run. His fourth pick Central Europe (7) is rated $20 against a $16 market this morning. He made the running at Rosehill with the shape of the race working against him and was collared late — Kingsley is prepared to forgive that run — but nought from five is a line on the page that cannot be talked away.
The metrics
CAM is the composite ability rating. Call Me Coach (11) tops it at 94.5767, ahead of Central Europe (7) at 91.6115 and Warwoven (2) at 91.5040. CSW rates class, speed and weight against the clock, and there Warwoven is clear on 99.85, with Tron Bolt (4) second on 95.48 and Central Europe third on 95.19.
Cruising speed measures the tempo a horse can hold without strain: Blind Raise (5) ranks first at 92.0, Warwoven second at 89.5, Call Me Coach third at 87.5. Acceleration measures the turn of foot when the race quickens, and Tron Bolt is the best in the field at 103.4490, with Call Me Coach second at 101.3460. The flipside is Wolf Gap (9), last on acceleration at 73.1931, and Tornado Valley (3), tenth at 73.2650.
The one-line summary: the horse with the best late burst has the worst draw, and the horse with the best CAM figure has beaten the weakest form in the race.
What to watch: whether Blind Raise crosses from barrier 2 and forces Warwoven to work for the front.
Pre-race analysis, published before the jump. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
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