Hawkesbury Race 6 Preview: Rated Prices, Tips, Pace Map
Hawkesbury Race 6 preview: a slow tempo, Youre Not The King mapping to lead, plus Kingsley's rated prices and top four selections for the 4:55pm.
A slow-tempo 1100m at Hawkesbury with one horse holding the controls and three genuine swoopers stuck behind a speed map that does not help them. That is the whole story of Race 6.
The race
Race 6 at Hawkesbury on Thursday 8 October jumps at 4:55pm AEDT for $42,000, an eight-horse field on a good surface in fine weather. The rail is out two metres from the 1100m to the 450m and true the rest of the way. Weights run from Bengal (2) on top at 61kg down to Lady Shenanigans (12) at 55kg, and the small field matters here, because with eight runners there is nowhere for a tempo to hide.
The pace picture
The tempo band reads Slow and the pressure figure is 22.13 per cent, which is about as soft a sectional shape as you will get on a Sydney-region program. Predicted in-running position (ppir, where 1 is the runner settling closest to the lead) has Youre Not The King (4) on 1, so he maps to lead. Lady Shenanigans sits on 2 from the rails gate, Pentagon (6) on 3 from barrier two, and Bengal on 4.
The flip side is severe. Master Yoda (8) is on 8, Alabama Showdown (9) on 7 and Viipuri (10) on 6, which means the three runners with the most finishing speed in the race are all being asked to make ground at a meeting where the leader is likely to dictate terms unopposed. In a field this size, with pressure at 22.13 per cent, that is a tall order.
Kingsley's selections
His top pick is Youre Not The King (4), rated $1.20 against a $1.45 market this morning — so even at a short quote, Kingsley has him shorter than the board. Rachel King rides for Bjorn Baker, he trialled well at Rosehill in front, and the map hands him an uncontested run with very little else on paper wanting to go forward. He is also the Golden Bullet, the official best bet of the race. Lightly raced, clear class edge, and the stable has him ready.
His second pick is Viipuri (10), rated $31 against a $10.00 market this morning — a wide gap, and it is the pace shape that creates it. He is two from two fresh and three wins from eight starts overall, he hit the line to win at Goulburn and trialled well at Warwick Farm since, and Zac Lloyd is a strong booking. The problem is he gets well back from barrier eight with no tempo to chase.
His third pick is Pentagon (6), rated $67 against a $14.00 market this morning. He won his Warwick Farm trial, resumes with a first-time tongue tie and maps to sit right on the speed from gate two, but he looks a horse crying out for more than 1100m. His fourth pick is Alabama Showdown (9), rated $91 against a $17.00 market this morning, a Goulburn winner a fortnight ago backing up over the same trip, but into a tougher race from a settling spot further back than ideal.
Two he is happy to oppose: Bengal, rated $18 against a $7.00 market this morning, without a win in 16 months, and Master Yoda, rated $17 against a $6.50 market this morning, who in Kingsley's view will be finishing hard at nothing.
The metrics
CAM is the composite ability rating, and Youre Not The King ranks 1 on 80.79, from Viipuri at 79.31 (rank 2) and Master Yoda at 78.85 (rank 3). CSW, the class-speed-weight time rating, tells the same story more emphatically: Youre Not The King is rank 1 on 91.63, more than six lengths of rating clear of Viipuri's 85.27 (rank 2) and Bengal's 85.14 (rank 3).
Cruising speed, the tempo a horse can hold mid-race, again has Youre Not The King rank 1 on 81.5, with Pentagon rank 2 on 80.0 and Lady Shenanigans rank 3 on 78.0 — the three runners the map already has forward. Acceleration, the turn of foot a horse can produce off that cruise, belongs to the back half: Master Yoda rank 1 on 88.44, Viipuri rank 2 on 88.25, Alabama Showdown rank 3 on 83.48.
The one-line summary: the top three on acceleration all settle sixth or worse, and the top three on cruising speed are the ones controlling the race.
What to watch: whether anything crosses Youre Not The King early — if nobody does, the slow tempo is his to set and the closers are racing for second.
Pre-race analysis, published before the jump. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Every race on the card, rated, with Kingsley's selections and the speed maps behind them. Your first day is free, no card needed.
The interactive version of this preview, with the rated card and Kingsley's selections, is at theking.zone.