Bendigo Race 7 Preview: Almairac Rated The Golden Bullet
Bendigo Race 7 preview: Kingsley's top four, rated prices against the market, the pace map and the CAM, CSW and cruising speed standouts.
A $100,000 mile at Bendigo with twelve runners, fine weather and the rail out five metres the whole way round. Kingsley has it rated as a race where the class horse is longer in the market than he should be.
The race
Bendigo Race 7 jumps at 4:55pm AEDT on Sunday, 4 October, for $100,000 over a good surface with the rail out 5m entire circuit. Twelve go around, weights spread from Eishaa's 61.5kg down to Koyuga Rip on 56kg, and there are several first-time-at-1600m questions in the field that the ratings do not answer the same way the market does. This race is free to view fully rated on theking.zone today.
The pace picture
The tempo band reads Average with a pressure figure of 51.06 per cent — essentially a race run at its own speed rather than one torn apart up front. Kastun Star (5) maps to lead on the predicted running positions, with Kingsley's top pick Almairac (14) the next closest to the speed and Glenfinnan (12) and Super Paradise (6) filling out the forward bracket. Koyuga Rip (18) is next in the order and rolls forward from barrier one, which is exactly the shape his profile wants.
The back half of the grid is where the market money sits. Eishaa (3) is tenth of twelve on predicted position out of barrier 12, Crown Crusher (15) eleventh, and Our Justify (13) is the furthest back of the lot on the numbers, which asks a lot of a mare having her first crack at the mile. In a race with no genuine pressure reading, horses giving the leaders a start need the race to fall apart, and nothing here says it will.
Kingsley's four
His top pick is Almairac (14), back in distance from nearly 2000m, rated $5 against an $8.00 market this morning — the biggest disagreement in the race among the chances. He is second on CSW, sits second closest to the lead on the grid, and Ethan Brown taking the ride is a clear upgrade. Kingsley has him as his Golden Bullet, the site's strongest official tip, with a clear class edge on these.
His second pick Our Justify (13) won here last start, driving through on the fence and holding on strongly, and she has the third-best acceleration figure in the field to run out a mile she has not yet attempted. The catch is the price: rated $2.60 against a $2.30 market this morning, so Kingsley has her short of value rather than short of ability.
His third pick Koyuga Rip (18) also won at this track last start, and did it the hard way caught wide and further back than intended. He is the best cruising-speed horse in the race, draws the inside gate and gets in well at the weights with a stable that trains on the track — rated $13 against a $9.50 market this morning.
His fourth pick Eishaa (3) has four wins from five starts at Bendigo and five from eight at the trip, and saluted here a fortnight ago. He also owns the best acceleration figure in the field. Barrier 12 and a position near the rear are the handbrake, and at rated $11 against a $9.00 market this morning there is no overlay in it.
The metrics
CAM is the composite ability rating, the all-in measure of a horse's quality. Untapped (4) tops it at 89.8527, with Eishaa second and Our Justify third — but Untapped is stepping up to 1600m for the first time and everything about him reads shorter, and at rated $10 against a $9.00 market this morning Kingsley is happy to take him on.
CSW is the class-speed-weight time rating, what a horse has actually run against the clock for its grade and weight. Corona Lad (17) heads it at 89.26 from Almairac at 88.88, though Corona Lad is eight now, wants further and maps well back. Cruising speed measures the tempo a horse can sustain mid-race: Koyuga Rip leads it on 89.7 from Kastun Star on 87.2. Acceleration is the finishing-burst figure, and Eishaa tops that at 98.6565 from Untapped and Our Justify.
Where the market sits
Several at the big end look short to Kingsley's book — Kastun Star rated $31 against an $11.00 market this morning, Dubai Watch rated $23 against a $14.00 market, Kokonda rated $51 against a $23.00 market. The one genuine market-against-rating gap in his favour is Almairac.
What to watch: whether Almairac can sit just off Kastun Star's lead, because from there this average-tempo mile is his to control.
Pre-race analysis, published before the jump. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Every race on the card, rated, with Kingsley's selections and the speed maps behind them. Your first day is free, no card needed.
The interactive version of this preview, with the rated card and Kingsley's selections, is at theking.zone.