Moruya Race 7 Preview: Pace Map, Rated Prices And Tips
Moruya race 7 preview: Kingsley's top four, rated prices against the morning market, the pace map and the CAM, CSW, cruise and accel standouts.
Ten runners, $50,000 on offer and a drizzly afternoon at Moruya with the rail in the True position. Race 7 jumps at 4:40pm AEST on a Good surface, and the shape of it comes down to one question: can the forward pair hold off the fastest finisher in the field.
The race
This is a compact field of ten on a day when the weather is doing its best to complicate matters, with drizzle falling and the track rated Good. Two first starters line up, which removes a chunk of the form base, and weights range from 59kg at the top down to 55kg for the lightweights. Two runners come out of the Mitchell Beer and George Carpenter stable, and three of the field are drawn in barriers one to three, which matters more than usual here given the tempo reading.
The pace picture
The tempo band reads Average with a pressure figure of 52.95 per cent, which is close to neutral — nobody is expected to tear this apart, and nobody should get a soft armchair sit either. The predicted running positions (ppir, where 1 is the runner settling closest to the lead) put Cheeky Sort (4) on the lead from barrier five, with Silverwater Kid (3) the one pressing from barrier six and Let's Engage (13) handy on the ppir read despite drawing the outside gate in ten.
Further back, Coco Dior (5) is projected to settle midfield at a ppir of 4, which is exactly the trip she wants. Millie's Memory (8) is next at 5, then Ponzi Scheme (12) at 6, Walking Unda Stars (10) at 7 and Aerion (1) at 8 — the last of those despite drawing barrier one, which is the quiet problem with his chance.
Kingsley's selections
His top pick is Coco Dior (5), and the case is a simple one: she owns the best acceleration figure in the race at 89.02 and ranks first on both CAM and CSW. Her last start can be excused — she was held up without room and still kept working to the line — and she is second-up and fitter for the run. The catch is the price. Kingsley rates her $2.60 against a $1.85 market this morning, so on his own numbers she is shorter than she should be.
His second pick Silverwater Kid (3) is the biggest threat and arguably the better value. He tops the field on cruising speed at 72.7, was held up for a run last start before hitting the line hard once clear and was beaten only half a length while recording a peak rating. He is four runs into the preparation and fitter again. Rated $6.00 against a $5.50 market this morning.
His third pick Let's Engage (13) gets blinkers after a wide, one-paced debut and ran second in a Nowra trial since. Barrier ten is the obstacle, but she maps closer than the gate suggests and Kingsley rates her $18.00 against a $21.00 market this morning — a touch better than the quote.
His fourth pick Cheeky Sort (4) did the donkey work out wide here last time and still battled on for third. She maps to lead again, though she is up 180m in trip and the ratings suggest she wants it shorter. Rated $7.50 against a $6.50 market this morning.
Two he is happy to take on: Mr Biggles Worth (11), a first starter who won a trial here but has no race experience to lean on and is rated $16.00 against an $8.50 market this morning; and Ponzi Scheme (12), who plodded home at his second start, sits fifth of the rated runners on acceleration and is rated $9.50 against an $8.00 market this morning. There are no official Golden Bullet or Good Roughie tips in this race.
The metrics
CAM is the composite ability rating, the single-number measure of a horse's overall standard, and Coco Dior leads it on 74.72. CSW rates class, speed and weight against the clock, and she tops that too at 76.20, from Silverwater Kid on 75.61 and Cheeky Sort third on 73.96. Cruising speed measures the tempo a horse can hold comfortably: Silverwater Kid is first at 72.7, Cheeky Sort second at 71.2. Acceleration measures the finishing burst, and the gap at the top is the race's defining number — Coco Dior at 89.02 against Silverwater Kid next best on 66.21. Millie's Memory is the quiet third wheel, ranking third on CAM, third on acceleration and fourth on CSW, but she is 0 from 7 and takes a significant weight rise.
What to watch: whether Silverwater Kid can use that field-best cruising speed to sit outside the leader and sting the run home before Coco Dior's acceleration gets to work.
Pre-race analysis, published before the jump. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
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