Rosehill Race 8 Preview: Kingsley's Tips And Rated Prices
Rosehill race 8 preview: Kingsley's top four, rated prices against the market, the pace map, and the CAM, CSW and acceleration standouts.
Twelve go around in the million-dollar feature at Rosehill, and the shape of it comes down to one question: does an average tempo give the late brigade enough to run at?
The race
Rosehill Race 8 jumps at 4:05pm AEST on Saturday, a twelve-horse field on a Good surface with the rail in the True position and fine weather overhead. Every runner carries 56.5kg, which strips the handicap out of the equation and leaves ability, fitness and the run of the race to sort it out. This race is free to view fully rated on theking.zone today.
The pace picture
The tempo band reads Average with a pressure figure of 60.12 per cent — a genuine gallop without the meltdown that hands the race to the swoopers. Warwoven (4) is the only runner with a predicted in-running position of 1, so he maps to lead from the fence, with Plagiarism (11) next closest at 2 and Guest House (1) sitting third on the pace map from barrier 5. Tenenbaum (13) fills in the forward bracket.
Behind them the queue is long. Under Focus (9) rates a 10 on the pace map, St Gotthard (5) a 9, Stormy Marco (8) an 11 and Berzelius (7) a 12, and Tron Bolt (3) is a 6 from barrier 10 with every chance of being further back than that. An average tempo rather than a hot one is the sticking point: the closers need Warwoven and Plagiarism to be under real pressure, and 60.12 per cent is pressure without being carnage. That tilts the balance towards the runner who can sit close and still sprint.
Kingsley's four
His top pick is Guest House (1), rated $2 against a $2.50 market this morning — Kingsley's line is shorter than the market's. The case is straightforward: a Slipper winner who returned and destroyed the clock at this track, then was held up until the 300m second-up and still put the race away under 58.5kg. He is two from two at Rosehill, three wins from five starts overall, Zac Lloyd stays on, and he is the race's Official Tip to back.
His second pick is Tron Bolt (3), rated $12 against a $14 market this morning. The last run is best forgiven — he was 11th in a race that played to the on-pacers and was still finishing off strongly. Damian Lane picks up the ride, he is fitter for the first-up hit-out, and barrier 10 means another swoop from the back half.
His third pick is St Gotthard (5), rated $4.60 against a much shorter $3.50 market this morning. He was beaten a whisker here last start and was unquestionably the horse hitting the line hardest. Lightly raced, going the right way, James McDonald aboard, and his finishing speed suggests the extra 200m is no barrier.
His fourth pick is Under Focus (9), rated $17 against an $11 market this morning. Last start he missed the jump, was held up, then had to come five wide and still charged home for third beaten 1.5 lengths. Third-up, he is one of the quickest finishers in the race.
The notable omission is Warwoven, who won here a fortnight back and draws the fence but has never gone past 1200m; he is rated $9.50 against a $7 market this morning, and Kingsley is happy to take him on.
The numbers
CSW is the class-speed-weight time rating, and Guest House owns it outright with 98.54, ranked 1, ahead of Warwoven at 95.44 in second and St Gotthard third. CAM — the composite ability mark that blends a horse's overall profile into one figure — has St Gotthard on top at 92.8636, with Under Focus second on 92.1001 and Tron Bolt third on 91.5245. Guest House ranks only 10th on CAM, which is the one soft spot in an otherwise dominant profile.
Acceleration, the measure of how fast a horse can change gear late, is where the plot thickens: Tron Bolt tops the field at 103.449, Under Focus is second at 102.6 and St Gotthard third at 102.127. Cruising speed — the tempo a horse can sustain mid-race — belongs to Plagiarism at 91.1, with Warwoven second at 89.6 and Tenenbaum third at 87.6, which explains exactly why those three map where they do.
What to watch: whether Warwoven and Plagiarism go hard enough up front to set it up for the three fastest finishers, or whether Guest House simply sits third and sprints past them.
Pre-race analysis, published before the jump. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Every race on the card, rated, with Kingsley's selections and the speed maps behind them. Your first day is free, no card needed.
The interactive version of this preview, with the rated card and Kingsley's selections, is at theking.zone.