Lismore Race 7 Preview: Gorbachev Into A Very Fast Tempo
Lismore Race 7 preview: a 97.95% pressure reading, Kingsley's top four with rated prices, and why the $3.00 market favourite has work to do.
Twelve go around in the $85,000 feature at Lismore at 4:14pm AEST, and the tempo projection says this one gets run off its feet. Kingsley's rated card disagrees with the release market on three of his top four.
The race
Race 7 at Lismore on Friday is a 12-horse field on a Good surface under fine skies, with the rail out 2.5m from the 950m to the 300m, 1.5m from the 300m to the winning post and true the rest of the way. It is the richest assignment on the card at $85,000, and the weight spread is the first thing that jumps off the page: Fukubana (2) carries 62kg while eight of his rivals are on the 54kg minimum. There are no official tips flagged in this race — no Golden Bullet, no Good Roughie — so the rated card does the talking.
The pace picture
The tempo band reads Very Fast with a pressure rating of 97.95%, which is about as hot as the model gets. Fiorsum Fred (14) maps to lead on a ppir of 1 — ppir simply measures where a runner is predicted to settle, with 1 being closest to the front — and he does not get to control it quietly. Gorbachev (6) is next at 2, Aratiri (10) at 3 and Do It For You (13) at 4, so there are four genuine forward horses inside the first five and no easy lead on offer.
That shape cuts two ways. It hurts Aratiri, who dictated at Doomben and could not hold off a challenge at the 400m, and it hurts Do It For You, who faced the breeze last start and was beaten off at the 300m. It helps anyone settling back with a finish. Fukubana (ppir 11), Carravilla (ppir 10) and Giapponese (ppir 9) are the deepest of the genuine chances, with House Of Cards (9) mapping last on a ppir of 12.
Kingsley's four
His top pick is Gorbachev (6), rated $5.00 against a $4.80 market this morning. He rolled forward at Eagle Farm and was only collared inside the last 100m in a race shape that was working against him, and he still recorded a peak figure. Five wins from 15 starts, up 126m on that run, and his cruising speed says he can sit in the first two of this without being dragged out of his comfort zone.
His second pick Mickey's Medal (3) is rated $6.50 against a $6.00 market. He is five from 14 at the trip, missed the jump at Randwick and still only went down a couple of lengths in stronger company. He gets back, and a Very Fast tempo is precisely the set-up he needs; the weight rise is the reservation.
His third pick Giapponese (12) is where the disagreement is widest — rated $10.00 against a $7.00 market. He was held up when hitting the line last time, drops significantly in weight and gets a quality rider. His fourth pick Sosino (5) is rated $21.00 against a $19.00 market, first-up off 69 days with an 0-from-5 fresh record as the obvious query.
The two Kingsley is happy to take on are Fukubana, rated $3.80 but a $3.00 market favourite this morning, humping 62kg from barrier 12, and Carravilla (8), rated $8.00 against a $6.00 market after enjoying a soft trail last start and still being run down.
The metrics
CAM is the composite ability rating, and Fukubana tops it at 87.5892 with Carravilla next at 87.4644 and Mickey's Medal third — which is exactly why the weight and the barrier matter so much on the first of those. CSW, the class-speed-weight time rating, has Mickey's Medal clear at the top on 95.89 from Fukubana on 93.60 and Kipling's Journey (7) on 92.38.
Cruising speed measures how fast a horse can travel without exerting itself, and Aratiri leads it on 93.60 from Gorbachev on 92.80. Acceleration is the turn-of-foot measure: Fukubana ranks first at 91.2737, Mickey's Medal second at 90.6234, Giapponese third at 89.5704. Three of the top four finishers in the field are getting back into a race that should be run at a genuine clip.
Watch the first 400m: if Fiorsum Fred, Gorbachev, Aratiri and Do It For You all go, the closers take over.
Pre-race analysis, published before the jump. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
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