Million Dollar Melbourne Cup Challenge: Episode 2 — Weights, Contenders & 9 Key Factors

Spring is here, the weights are out, and the countdown to the 2025 Melbourne Cup is officially on. In Episode 2 of the Million Dollar Melbourne Cup Challenge, I sat down with my great mate (and fellow Cup tragic) Adam Sparrow to unpack what the weights mean, which contenders are firming, and how our framework for finding this year’s winner has grown from seven factors to nine.

This is the stage where the Cup picture begins to take shape. Let’s break it down.

The Weight Debate

Every Melbourne Cup starts with one non-negotiable: weight matters. Over 3,200 metres, weight stops horses — it always has and always will.

• Al Riffa has been handed 59kg, and while it’s an outstanding horse, history tells us that carrying that impost is a massive challenge. Kingston Town fell agonisingly short with 59, and even champions like Makybe Diva had conditions in their favour when winning under big weights. For mine, Al Riffa is already on the back foot.
• Sir Delius lands at 55.5kg — the “sweet spot” weight. Many winners have carried around this mark, and its profile is starting to look very Cup-like.
• Vauban goes up one kilo to 56.5kg, but with Gay Waterhouse now training, I expect a sharper, more Australian-style preparation. That could make all the difference.
• At the other end, Birdman (51kg) and Revelare (51.5kg) sneak in with winnable weights and profiles that suggest upside.

Key Contenders

From the early form and weights, a few names stand out:

• Sir Delius — Ticks the boxes on weight, ratings (100+), and class (8th in the Arc). Queries on the 3,200m, but the Cox Plate/Cup double is the right pathway.
• Vauban — Twice Cup favourite, now under Gay’s program. Already acclimatised in Australia and showed promise first-up. The Caulfield Cup will tell us more.
• Birdman — Lightly weighted, still improving, and gave me shades of Rekindling with its Chelmsford run. Needs to lift ratings but could do so quickly.
• Revelare — Relaxed, genuine stayer who impressed winning the Archer. Still needs to step up in class, but has the style to handle Flemington.
• Buckaroo — The jury is out. Still hasn’t won beyond 1,800m, goes up in weight, and I can’t have him at this stage.
• Al Riffa — A world-class horse, but 59kg and no Australian lead-up run puts me firmly against it (for now).

From 7 to 9 Factors

In Episode 1, I shared my seven factors for finding the Cup winner. After reviewing feedback and discussion, we’ve added two more:

1. Weight – The longer the trip, the more it matters.
2. Trainer – Experience counts; Cup-winning trainers know the formula.
3. Running Style – Relaxed, midfield sit with cover is the sweet spot.
4. Sectionals – Fast late splits, especially with light weights, are gold.
5. Distance – Must run out a true 3,200m.
6. Lead-Up Races – Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate, Irish St Leger still the gold standard.
7. Odds – Most winners come from $31 and under.
8. Breeding – Stayers come from staying lines; sprinter bloodlines rarely stretch.
9. Track Conditions – A wet Cup favours out-and-out stayers; firm ground can expose them.

The State of Play

Right now, the 2025 Cup looks stronger than last year. With horses coming through the Arc, proven local preps, and some exciting lightweights, this is shaping as a genuinely high-class renewal.

For me at this stage:

• Sir Delius and Vauban are the ones to beat.
• Birdman is the sleeper at odds.
• Al Riffa and Buckaroo I’m prepared to oppose.

But this is just the beginning. After the Caulfield Cup and Cox Plate, the picture will sharpen again, and Episode 3 is where we’ll go runner-by-runner through the likely Cup field.

Final Word

The Cup is only weeks away, and edges are already appearing. Episode 2 is where we lock in the framework and start separating the real chances from the hype.

Stay in the game,
Kingsley Bartholomew