Kingsley Bartholomew on Dynamic Odds & Market Strategy
After 25 years of betting professionally, one truth stands out: most punters don’t lose because they can’t pick winners — they lose because they don’t know how to bet.
In this post, Kingsley Bartholomew walks us through a real-time example using Dynamic Odds to dissect the betting markets for Ipswich Race 2 — showing exactly how to identify the best price in the final moments before a race.
Whether you're sharpening your strategy ahead of the Melbourne Cup 2025 or trying to turn your weekend betting around, this is a masterclass in market-reading that every aspiring professional punter should understand.
📊 Reading the Markets: Betfair, Tote & Corporates
At a glance, Kingsley has his screen set up with:
- Three Tote pools: NSW, VicTAB, and QLD
- Betfair markets: both back and lay prices
- Corporate bookies: offering their own prices and flux charts
This "three-ring market" setup — Tote, Exchange, and Corporate — gives punters a real-time edge on price discrepancies.
🧠 “These are like three different betting rings,” Kingsley says. “Your job is to line them up and take the best of the three.”
🧠 Real-Time Example: Ipswich Race 2
The favourite, First Empire, is:
- $2.20, $1.80, and $2.10 on various Tote pools
- $1.74 to both back and lay on Betfair
- $1.50 with TAB corporates, despite opening at $2.00
What’s the play here?
Take Best Tote or Betfair SP — never settle for the worst price.
💰 Finding Value in the Second Pick
The second favourite, Savert, shows the real opportunity:
- $6.00 on Betfair
- Best Tote: $4.50–$5.20
- Corporate bookies: shorter again
This tells us Betfair is the clear value — and the move from $4.20 to $3.10 back out to $6.60 shows volatility you can take advantage of if you're disciplined.
“Don’t panic if you miss the price,” Kingsley reminds us. “You often get a better price right on the jump.”
📌 Key Takeaways from Kingsley
- Line up your markets — Use Dynamic Odds to compare Tote, Betfair, and Corporates.
- Don’t chase drifters blindly — but don’t fear them either.
- Look for late plays — value often opens up right before the jump.
- Corporates take turns offering value — Unibet, BetR, BoomBet and others might bet overs when opposing horses.
🎯 Why This Matters for Melbourne Cup 2025 Tips
The Melbourne Cup is where liquidity and market sharpness peak — and price discipline becomes even more critical. With bookies tightening margins and early markets running 125%+, waiting for late plays using tools like Dynamic Odds will separate punters who profit from those who don't.
“In the Cup, knowing where to bet is just as important as what to bet on.”
✅ Final Word
This isn't just theory — it's the practical application of Pillar 4 of The King Zone’s punting framework: Bet Placement & Odds Discipline.
Whether you're punting at Ipswich or planning your Melbourne Cup 2025 tips, the lesson is the same: get the best price, every time.