It’s Not Just About Picking Winners

Kingsley Bartholomew has built a 25+ year career knowing how to extract value from the market. In this quick case study, we break down one simple lesson that could add thousands to your bottom line over time:

“Most took $2.40. We got $3.10. Here’s how.”

🎯 The Setup: TKZ Golden Bullet – Guerrero at Canberra

On the day, Race 2, Number 3 – Guerrero came through as the clear Golden Bullet: best of the day based on TKZ’s metrics, analysis, and market intelligence.

• Opening market price: $2.60
• Crunched into: $2.40
• TKZ Bullet Price: $2.20
• Actual Best Tote dividend: $3.10
• Bookie price near jump: As low as $1.80–$2.40
• Betfair jump price: $2.50

While the market caught on and the fixed odds crunched, the Best Tote SP was quietly building to deliver a monster overlay.

💡 The Lesson: Why Price Discipline Beats Panic

The common punter mistake? Panic betting when they see a price shorten. But Kingsley’s advice is simple:

“If you’ve missed the price on an in-the-market horse (under $10), especially in country races—wait and go Best Tote + SP.”

Why?

• Country tote pools are small (e.g. $6.5k–$30k), which makes them prone to last-minute kick-outs.
• Many punters ignore the tote late—creating opportunity for disciplined players.
• $3.10 on a $2.40 chance is a 29% edge.

🧠 The Takeaway: It’s Not About Picking Winners

Most punters focus entirely on what horse to back. Pros like Kingsley focus on how and where to place the bet.

This example shows that you can still win even after the market has moved—if you stay calm, stick to the process, and use your tools.

So whether you're chasing Melbourne Cup Tips, smart horse racing tips, or building your system ahead of the Melbourne Cup 2025, remember:

• Stay in the game.
• Trust the numbers.
• And get the best price.

🔁 Want More from Kingsley Bartholomew?

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