How Kingsley Bartholomew Uses Lays to Find Value Bets: A Practical Guide for Horse Racing Punters

If you're only betting the official tips, you're leaving value on the table.

In this practical breakdown, professional punter Kingsley Bartholomew shows how to leverage lays and overlays on the TKZ form screen to find smart betting angles—especially useful as we approach the Melbourne Cup 2025.

🔍 Why Lays Matter More Than You Think

Kingsley's system flags lays under $5 as key signals. These are short-priced runners that his data says are under the odds—meaning there's likely value elsewhere in the field.

Example:

• Race: Eagle Farm Race 2
• Lay: #9 Sweet Hesitation ($2.45 market price)
• Kingsley's Take: “I've got this runner marked much longer—it's a clear lay.”

When there's a lay in a race under $5, it opens the door to look at other runners offering value—overlays in TKZ terms.

🎯 How to Find Overlays Using TKZ Tools

When you identify a race with a solid lay:

1. Check the Top 4 Selections on the TKZ site.
2. Only consider backing horses within these top 4.
3. Then head to the odds screen to spot green overlays—runners whose market price is longer than Kingsley’s bullet price.

Why this works: These horses are statistically the most likely to win (~70% strike rate from Top 4), and the overlay gives you the edge the market missed.

💰 How Kingsley Bets: Staking Strategy

Not all bets are created equal. Here’s how Kingsley structures his staking:

• Official Tips: Bet to win $200 (max stake $100)
• Overlay Picks (Top 4 with lay present): Bet to win $100 (max stake $50)

If your bank is smaller? Adjust accordingly. Stick to the ratio.

🛠 Bet Placement: Betfair vs Corporates

When placing overlay bets:

• Use Betfair when odds are significantly better than corporate bookies.
• Only take corporate prices if they align with Betfair or Best Tote + SP.

Kingsley checks dynamic odds live before the jump, especially with drifting favourites or firming overlays.

Betfair tip: Use Betfair for runners $11+—especially on overlay bets. You’ll often get 20–40% more return than fixed odds with the corporates.

📈 Real-World Example: Sandown Race 6

• Lay: #4 Bluestone
• Top 4 Picks: 9, 5, 2, 7
• Overlay Bet: #5 Galileus (Marked $9.50, Betfair paid $32)
• Result: Galileus won. Corporate bookies maxed at $23.

“This is why we back to win, not flat stake. And why you use Betfair,” says Kingsley.

🧠 Process Over Results

Kingsley always reinforces: this is a system, not guesswork.

Even if the lay wins now and then, long term:

• Backing overlays in the top 4 when there's a lay
• Using Betfair and best price tools
• Sticking to your staking plan

…will all compound your edge over time.

🏁 Final Word: Stay in the Game

As we look toward Melbourne Cup 2025, smart punters should remember:

• Lays are your friend
• Bet the overs, especially on Betfair
• Focus on process, not hype

That’s the TKZ way. Educated, disciplined, and always focused on the long game.