Chris Waller: Champion Trainer, But Should Punters Be Cautious?
After a remarkable year where he equalled his own Group 1 record, Chris Waller continues to dominate headlines in Australian racing. But as punters, we’re not here to celebrate reputations—we’re here to bet and win.
And in 2025, Waller’s stats tell a cautionary tale.
Group 1 Glory—But At What Cost?
Let’s start with the good news: Waller’s having a blinder at the top end. He’s equalled his career-best with 18 Group 1 wins this season.
But when we zoom out and analyse his entire stable performance—especially from a punter's perspective—the numbers shift.
ROI and Strike Rate Slump
From 2018 to 2024, Chris Waller's ROI (at best of the best odds) consistently hovered around -6%.
In 2025? That ROI has plummeted to -16%.
That’s not just below his average—that’s 13% worse than the broader market average, which sits around -3%. His win strike rate has dropped from an average of 13% to just 9.5% this season.
It’s not about “how many winners” anymore. It’s about value and profitability.
The Wide Barrier Woes
Waller’s cautious tactics from wide gates have long been discussed. From 2,105 runners drawn barrier 10 or wider since 2018, the ROI sits at -20%. That’s well below the average.
He’s known for “jagging back” from wide draws—often giving up early position and relying on a big finish. Problem is, they don’t win often enough. The win strike rate from wide barriers? Just 7.5%.
Second-Up Syndrome
Another familiar Waller pattern is the second-up slump. Here’s the ROI breakdown by run:
- First-up: +2%
- Second-up: -9%
- Third-up: -9%
- Fourth-up or later: +4%
The numbers get worse when a horse has won first-up. The second-up ROI for those is -11%—a huge red flag for any punter following early-prep winners blindly.
State-by-State Breakdown
Performance also varies drastically by region:
- NSW Metro: +6% ROI
- NSW Provincial: +4%
- Victoria: -16%
- Queensland: -8%
His form in Victoria—home of the 2025 Melbourne Cup—is especially poor this season. It’s not just a small sample either. Over 2,400 runners across all states, that -16% loss is significant.
Track Bias & Jockey Combinations
Even his most trusted combos have dipped. J-Mac and Waller combine at 21% strike rate—but the ROI is still -6%. The market clearly over-adjusts for the ‘big-name’ partnership.
Tommy Berry has been Waller’s most profitable jockey with a +14% ROI and 17% strike rate across over 500 rides.
At the other end? Jason Collett’s ROI with Waller sits at -22%, and a win strike rate of just 10%.
The Punters' Perspective
So, what’s going on?
It may come down to strategy. Waller is clearly targeting Group 1 success. But when you’re running multiple horses in the same race, only one can win—and the others dilute your overall ROI.
His programming may favour “grand finals” over week-to-week value. That means the punter’s job is to sniff out where the market is missing—not just blindly back the name.
As The King Zone teaches: it’s not about backing the most winners—it’s about backing value. Process over results. Discipline over emotion.
Melbourne Cup 2025 Tips: Caution Advised
Looking toward the Melbourne Cup, punters chasing “Waller runners” need to tread carefully.
He may have the quality. He may have the names. But unless the market misses them—and you’re getting the right price—you’re backing into a margin trap.
Don’t bet Waller’s name—bet the horse, the setup, and the price.
Final Word
Chris Waller is a legend of the turf. No one’s knocking that. But if you’re punting for profit—not headlines—you need to know when the numbers say: "Hold fire."
His 2025 form tells a clear story.
We’ll keep testing our edge. Will you?